Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ead92e6a6fba00d40565c1c13d7d7d58fb17757f51c882e949c881e4371c5a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 5,045$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.6 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa3…d001backed Yes | 8c | 4,225$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 3,911$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.78 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd273…03afbacked Yes | 4c | 3,702$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,673$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…535abacked Yes | 8c | 1,589$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…be97backed Yes | 9c | 1,462$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 8c | 1,448$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.42 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,257$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fc…acc7backed Yes | 4c | 1,242$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7631…003cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,133$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 1,023$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a1…861bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,019$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 826.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 8c | 807$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96aa…0547backed Yes | 4c | 775$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…fca5backed Yes | 4c | 771.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7232…a4b3backed Yes | 5c | 759.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 707.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x494c…8df5backed Yes | 4c | 683$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe375…b335backed Yes | 2c | 610.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…65abbacked Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 4c | 597.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc0…865ebacked Yes | 5c | 579.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 546.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc4…5180backed Yes | 4c | 530.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 4c | 513.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…c051backed Yes | 8c | 512.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 6c | 480.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b7…1622backed Yes | 4c | 476.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a4…8229backed Yes | 4c | 471.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 4c | 405.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 5c | 390.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6c…b2d8backed Yes | 4c | 389.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 80c | 329$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.81 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1226…8181backed Yes | 8c | 298.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…4421backed Yes | 8c | 256.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked Yes | 19c | 240$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…b4f2backed Yes | 11c | 237.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…d131backed Yes | 4c | 236.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…1a5fbacked Yes | 5c | 229.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 8c | 208.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa459…7dd6backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +832.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…c3b8backed Yes | 14c | 196.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed Yes | 8c | 159.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 10c | 153.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…9991backed Yes | 10c | 152.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 7cpaid | +515.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 10c | 129.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5f…319bbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 18c | 110.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…2166backed Yes | 19c | 107.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…6951backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 85.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed No | 78c | 66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9259…c2d3backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe856…3789backed No | 79c | 19.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?this page
- Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?Yes won
- Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.