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Us Politics · resolved market

Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$592,481
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$582,954

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $592,481 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 254 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd572…7c23backed Yes4c4,179$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f33…e601backed Yes5c3,970$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aa4…8d4fbacked Yes5c3,956$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40a1…901cbacked Yes5c3,804$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd97d…b5bbbacked Yes5c3,721$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a36…aa7cbacked Yes5c3,697$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe272…f725backed Yes5c3,219$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe3c1…2337backed Yes5c3,091$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ddb…ec7abacked Yes6c3,055$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x426d…effdbacked Yes5c2,898$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f59…58fcbacked Yes6c2,826$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x219c…212fbacked Yes5c2,783$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x197b…5145backed Yes5c2,719$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb46d…d63abacked Yes5c2,489$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes7c2,456$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.8133313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe566…db6cbacked Yes5c2,453$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x47c6…701abacked Yes5c2,366$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9e5…3f8fbacked Yes5c2,361$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa50e…159abacked Yes5c2,353$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53a6…562abacked Yes5c2,312$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef9f…8924backed Yes14c2,306$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.712665.4%17 W · 9 L+10.8wins+0.41per pick24cpaid+149.6%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xf740…088fbacked Yes5c2,246$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87f6…2335backed Yes5c2,188$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x235f…4310backed Yes6c2,149$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9e7…cfc4backed Yes5c2,145$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce4…8050backed Yes5c2,129$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb49f…a836backed Yes5c2,129$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4d4…4124backed Yes5c2,111$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1605…f0fbbacked Yes5c2,075$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd2a4…ee62backed Yes5c2,036$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24d2…f821backed Yes6c2,019$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc429…51bcbacked Yes6c2,019$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e7…819dbacked Yes5c2,006$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf26e…9293backed Yes6c1,995$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf4a…e0d1backed Yes6c1,995$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff36…f572backed Yes5c1,992$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e88…3731backed Yes5c1,990$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e28…1236backed Yes5c1,979$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa1e…f880backed Yes5c1,927$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4030…093abacked Yes6c1,915$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes4c1,893$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.651466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf900…5954backed Yes6c1,887$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa709…992abacked Yes6c1,887$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb135…a9c1backed Yes5c1,875$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0fb2…e5dfbacked Yes6c1,836$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8045…2dc9backed Yes5c1,830$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa573…793dbacked Yes6c1,826$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bfc…3effbacked Yes6c1,822$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9ef7…0b96backed Yes5c1,820$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c64…2d5cbacked Yes5c1,788$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…db0dbacked Yes5c1,780$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6af1…dd4dbacked Yes5c1,778$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2811…5965backed Yes5c1,751$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eb3…e367backed Yes6c1,707$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x249d…93e7backed Yes5c1,692$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ad0…692cbacked Yes6c1,680$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x130d…5c0fbacked Yes6c1,634$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb824…2d4cbacked Yes5c1,626$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfe…78d4backed Yes5c1,617$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbec1…25d8backed Yes6c1,609$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9da6…08cebacked Yes5c1,587$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7f7…d7f5backed Yes5c1,586$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x196d…1e02backed Yes5c1,584$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb23…23c1backed Yes5c1,564$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8abf…d973backed Yes6c1,543$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53b6…970abacked Yes5c1,529$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1f12…50a9backed Yes5c1,524$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc06f…f952backed Yes6c1,495$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e79…c0f1backed Yes5c1,461$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18ae…1f84backed Yes6c1,458$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95e9…6faabacked Yes5c1,445$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe9e6…a8adbacked Yes5c1,437$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x268d…0d76backed Yes5c1,424$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f0b…0772backed Yes6c1,413$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74e6…cad4backed Yes6c1,376$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64da…5973backed Yes5c1,364$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbb2…e58cbacked Yes6c1,358$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x950a…fca5backed Yes7c1,349$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.97137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf5…67c9backed Yes5c1,344$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02e8…5d1abacked Yes5c1,331$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2630…5c17backed Yes5c1,293$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf089…ef21backed Yes6c1,291$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cf2…b9f2backed Yes6c1,288$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb6c…8b5fbacked Yes5c1,287$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5444…2d53backed Yes6c1,256$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes7c1,252$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.691428.5%12 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes14c1,250$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.44150%0 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3220…f613backed Yes5c1,246$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9151…fd33backed Yes5c1,232$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7666…f21bbacked Yes6c1,227$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ee7…dfa3backed Yes6c1,226$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaf4…c2a7backed Yes5c1,186$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd92…761cbacked Yes5c1,165$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb15f…0ad6backed Yes5c1,162$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedca…a9a5backed Yes5c1,110$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf182…70c2backed Yes5c1,107$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefc7…cf33backed Yes6c1,103$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6632…c0d6backed Yes5c1,103$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdb35…7446backed Yes4c1,097$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c56…6ad4backed Yes5c1,096$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.