TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$106,615
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$111,250

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,615 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes56c4,114$2,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,806.614969.4%34 W · 15 L+9.0wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes53c3,705$1,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,744.113638.9%14 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No21c3,684$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.474714.9%7 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes71c2,993$2,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.1127536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No25c2,839$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.237032.9%23 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-41.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No25c2,148$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.927943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec4d…be21backed No14c2,090$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.6140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a52…d74cbacked Yes70c1,848$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.381668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes41c1,614$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.5419818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x819f…f3e7backed No8c1,575$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.9740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc40…56a3backed Yes70c1,434$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.95757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b60…a55bbacked Yes68c1,388$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.83771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4266…5305backed Yes64c1,384$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.19616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-74%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No22c1,373$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.2219432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No33c1,362$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.778942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x876b…1703backed Yes61c1,289$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.636237.1%23 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No4c1,285$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4947938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes64c1,273$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.574259.5%25 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5421…12e8backed Yes69c1,253$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed No63c1,193$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.8910933.9%37 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a13…ee8dbacked Yes43c1,169$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed No14c1,160$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.141533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-51.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc229…3aafbacked Yes42c1,139$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid-21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No25c1,089$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.241464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+30.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No12c894.68$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.321,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No31c841.04$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.066145.9%28 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No33c837.41$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.765440.7%22 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No36c800$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2884055%22 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0da4…eddebacked Yes75c745.24$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.812755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3870backed No24c708.21$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.977948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes22c708.01$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.255510.9%6 W · 49 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5007…df2ebacked Yes67c707$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.981163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No68c671.63$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.96439.1%25 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5018…6108backed Yes75c664.5$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No43c655.73$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.757529.3%22 W · 53 L-11.8wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-46.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8de5…84d7backed Yes28c641.57$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.93825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+105.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1a0f…53a2backed Yes66c633.98$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No27c628.72$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.692339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked No37c600$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2224148.8%20 W · 21 L+7.0wins+0.17per pick32cpaid+56.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed No59c593.99$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.0325837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No39c587.65$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.498741.4%36 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1be…c3f6backed Yes69c583.99$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1805100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+76.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No49c558.73$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.477041.4%29 W · 41 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-36.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No29c548.02$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.967448.6%36 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes41c542$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.8614337.8%54 W · 89 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No21c518.71$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.179525.3%24 W · 71 L-13.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-16.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe38e…50c8backed Yes58c517.14$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.141258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick35cpaid+45.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No35c487.27$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.475848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No38c447.56$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.0872935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No36c406.57$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.6816418.9%31 W · 133 L-21.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-51.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xcbcc…1377backed Yes30c362.6$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.61957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf394…ad79backed Yes61c361.78$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+93.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e49…0424backed Yes50c360.82$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No38c360.8$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.168547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed No63c356.16$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.862445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes39c353.31$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6511636.2%42 W · 74 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b58…eb2bbacked Yes68c350$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.51338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-41.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes71c332.36$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.1315047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes39c330$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.48933.7%30 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No7c319.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.432674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ac…40d9backed No62c304$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.482646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6568…978ebacked No34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-62.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2107…8a8abacked No34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-67.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31b3…b35cbacked Yes36c300$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+80.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No28c296.25$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.212045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No72c292$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.2410730.8%33 W · 74 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes68c288.24$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.17143.7%31 W · 40 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No27c275.8$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.373243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No56c270.41$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.634736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe28d…0274backed Yes72c270$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-72.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d5…a81ebacked Yes64c256.81$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46b2…df24backed Yes71c250$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed7f…582bbacked Yes75c245.78$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.781758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No8c235$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.38123.5%19 W · 62 L-9.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-55.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No34c220$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.926647%31 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes72c209.17$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.174271.4%30 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e10…1186backed Yes34c205.27$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.17633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0789…b90abacked Yes53c205$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No53c201.29$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.544126.8%11 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c4d…b0edbacked Yes50c200.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc91a…70febacked Yes72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.857538.7%29 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x096b…bf95backed Yes51c197.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.15333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No22c186.85$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.358033.8%27 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No72c186.57$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3332228.9%93 W · 229 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed No65c184.55$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.218047.5%38 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb477…673ebacked Yes75c180$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453759.5%22 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick70cpaid-15.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x172d…f864backed Yes56c179.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.33100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No31c175.34$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.964946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No56c175.29$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.442470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+24.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6f0…f943backed Yes63c159.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+60.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b72…38d5backed Yes72c156.37$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.361369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+136.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0777…4b7fbacked No15c153.52$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.381910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-48.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1771…6796backed Yes73c150$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5de7…540cbacked Yes70c149.99$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.52259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No51c146.59$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.36656.1%37 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95e5…19a1backed Yes68c146$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad0d…9ddabacked No23c143.11$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.91633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+45.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa953…32b0backed Yes67c143$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.19425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf3…5c30backed Yes71c140$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.61040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.