AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70e74c365daa1a88fa71cb64fd7de7cea4eb1b99d7675de99960bd6e142c1e46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 8c | 14,785$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.11 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 3c | 7,269$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.44 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,175$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 4c | 2,394$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.79 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 5c | 1,794$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.61 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,506$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,382$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 2c | 1,187$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…fccabacked Yes | 5c | 926.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 7c | 878.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 3c | 873.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 2c | 668.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 3c | 604.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 561.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 4c | 494.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 5c | 458.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 442$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked Yes | 11c | 370$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 7c | 319.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc59d…3eacbacked Yes | 11c | 279$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd81…006dbacked Yes | 10c | 254.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa148…f655backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 9c | 161.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes | 7c | 160.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Amazon have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes won
- Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will ByteDance have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Meta have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Microsoft have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.