AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2a472c051e1ab231a4feb40322ccdafccff5fe9e4a006381224e10aff0e83ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,244,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,413,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,244,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90d4…c7c8backed No | 1c | 124,562$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 12c | 65,550$7,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,822.39 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed No | 12c | 27,977$3,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,227.44 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked No | 3c | 20,001$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 12c | 16,970$2,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,037.59 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 12c | 16,964$2,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,031.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 12c | 15,385$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.01 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked No | 12c | 14,962$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,845.8 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 12c | 14,588$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,681.49 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 14,455$1,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,908.2 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 10c | 13,430$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.6 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed No | 12c | 13,283$1,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32c…a4c2backed No | 11c | 12,697$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 13c | 11,545$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.47 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 5c | 11,072$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.83 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked No | 8c | 9,800$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.98 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 9,610$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 13c | 9,451$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.04 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked No | 0c | 9,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…3741backed No | 5c | 8,919$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.66 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…06bbbacked No | 1c | 8,174$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 12c | 8,159$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.93 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 1c | 7,587$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed No | 10c | 7,341$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 11c | 7,283$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.25 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 13c | 7,113$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…74fcbacked No | 15c | 6,670$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 14c | 6,389$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.53 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 14c | 6,246$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.79 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c55…a595backed No | 0c | 5,830$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 5,448$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 12c | 4,935$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.2 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 12c | 4,620$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.59 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 16c | 4,605$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -78%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 12c | 4,569$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.85 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…04e8backed No | 13c | 4,367$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.06 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 13c | 4,253$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.46 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 15c | 4,075$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.18 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed No | 3c | 4,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed No | 13c | 4,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.98 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 17c | 3,791$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.53 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 1c | 3,592$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85fd…99c5backed No | 5c | 3,574$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 14c | 3,333$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.61 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…21bfbacked No | 2c | 3,278$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 13c | 3,215$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.86 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 12c | 3,173$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.07 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd683…3c0cbacked No | 8c | 3,014$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c09…8e6ebacked No | 6c | 2,912$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x320a…f022backed No | 14c | 2,860$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 13c | 2,831$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.45 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc59…0b35backed No | 6c | 2,803$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2647…5cc5backed No | 6c | 2,790$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,651$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad2…e215backed No | 6c | 2,557$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 2c | 2,361$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 1c | 2,300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…a29fbacked No | 17c | 2,284$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 8c | 2,165$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.4 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x413b…b488backed No | 14c | 2,150$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 1c | 2,140$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 73 | 1.4%1 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 14c | 2,093$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.41 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 14c | 2,011$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.54 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed No | 9c | 2,010$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.1 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 13c | 2,000$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.41 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 4c | 2,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de9…60adbacked No | 1c | 1,962$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…ac9abacked No | 3c | 1,945$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8e…5b53backed No | 16c | 1,736$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.76 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x021e…1e56backed No | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed No | 13c | 1,434$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.07 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb492…12dabacked No | 15c | 1,340$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 10c | 1,300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…e97ebacked No | 1c | 1,235$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe28d…0274backed No | 15c | 1,230$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…76a7backed No | 1c | 1,215$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 14c | 1,139$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.58 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 8c | 1,139$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 13c | 1,120$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.5 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…863cbacked No | 6c | 1,053$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 12c | 1,042$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.61 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 15c | 1,036$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.11 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…7c88backed No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe9…358dbacked No | 12c | 999.76$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked No | 14c | 986.03$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.28 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 12c | 958.5$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.03 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked No | 15c | 899.98$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 14c | 891.87$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 11c | 890$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 14c | 852.9$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.03 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb89…4ce8backed No | 17c | 799.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 12c | 751.57$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.24 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 5c | 718.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 6c | 703.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c5…c7bbbacked No | 13c | 700$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…c440backed No | 15c | 699.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 2c | 676.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…df24backed No | 16c | 670$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…b61fbacked No | 15c | 669.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf3…5c30backed No | 15c | 666$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.