TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$845,873
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$505,166

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $845,873 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x876b…1703backed Yes8c79,802$6,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,772.036237.1%23 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90d4…c7c8backed Yes0c75,651$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-53.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c60,983$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.67220%0 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes10c59,237$6,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,073.354835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes10c23,746$2,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,305.0521035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c21,877$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1682…26cabacked Yes9c20,285$1,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,743.81921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-59.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd109…6fa0backed Yes10c19,029$1,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,857.59714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-72.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes7c17,541$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.6627536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes0c16,665$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.67430%0 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes10c14,194$1,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.3514337.8%54 W · 89 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes10c14,044$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,435.391533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes8c10,218$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.118754%47 W · 40 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c10,200$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7811.2%1 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed Yes9c9,458$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.263943.6%17 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes12c7,817$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.416453.1%34 W · 30 L+12.9wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+95.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes0c7,500$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.56291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes9c7,420$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.946334.9%22 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x124a…3741backed Yes4c6,404$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.122532%8 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8b5…b789backed Yes3c6,144$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.635817.2%10 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+77%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed Yes5c6,005$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes9c5,943$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.993125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes6c5,899$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.042729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-55.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes11c5,200$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c5,077$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.242560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes10c5,071$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.6536945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes13c5,065$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.246931.9%22 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04fc…0e31backed Yes11c4,738$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.06520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-73.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed Yes12c4,478$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.732969%20 W · 9 L+5.4wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+52.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes6c4,254$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.05796.3%5 W · 74 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes8c4,019$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.82729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3437…f8f3backed Yes9c4,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.954341.9%18 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes10c3,923$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.971388%11 W · 127 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed Yes10c3,894$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.783056.7%17 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x77ea…324cbacked Yes5c3,877$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x647f…c4d1backed Yes5c3,732$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7f…21bfbacked Yes7c3,685$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.36520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-73.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes1c3,432$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.472817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+135.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c3,311$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.36240%0 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87bb…7269backed Yes5c3,297$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes8c3,114$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.8725837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2365…af90backed Yes0c3,110$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c3,100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes8c3,001$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.166434.4%22 W · 42 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+100.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed Yes11c3,000$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-71.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes10c2,835$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.298047.5%38 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes9c2,594$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.164422.7%10 W · 34 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c55…a595backed Yes1c2,433$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes10c2,419$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.95407.5%3 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-70.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes8c2,200$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.26354%34 W · 29 L+11.0wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+59.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes8c2,000$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1625554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x407d…1baebacked Yes12c2,000$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes9c1,960$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.954339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3788…fc25backed Yes1c1,900$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed Yes10c1,870$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.61812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-73.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes10c1,812$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.222977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes9c1,746$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.82674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes6c1,681$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.35150%0 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes2c1,677$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.496726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes1c1,600$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14230%0 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7a4…8229backed Yes12c1,550$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes5c1,528$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1914421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1547…d066backed Yes9c1,500$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.83751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes12c1,386$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.642050%10 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+45.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4fd…0095backed Yes1c1,349$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c1,333$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.261,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7d2…f954backed Yes11c1,256$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.418853.4%47 W · 41 L+13.9wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+27.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5849…a99ebacked Yes1c1,235$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.72100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x403f…b886backed Yes2c1,177$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.38425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+348.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2184…00dfbacked Yes8c1,153$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.241330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-53.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes11c1,137$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.693638.9%14 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes12c1,135$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.887132.4%23 W · 48 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+49.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6204…421abacked Yes7c1,122$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.133020%6 W · 24 L-6.4wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-73.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xfd78…8f70backed Yes1c1,016$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaf1…3fbfbacked Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Yes2c1,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-73.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes12c999.99$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1237946.8%37 W · 42 L+10.0wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+17.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes11c999.98$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1056536.9%24 W · 41 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+55.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8bb…4282backed Yes8c974.7$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.46333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-54.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes10c950.09$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.212560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes2c936.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes11c899.96$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.61936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-43.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd416…d9e2backed Yes12c871.14$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.451442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes4c860.42$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.08731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3d…fea1backed Yes7c840$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.611822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-44.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x819f…f3e7backed Yes7c823.1$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5144…37c9backed Yes12c819.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed Yes11c813.99$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.54922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.27per pick50cpaid-68.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes8c799.97$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.21735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-46.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99f0…649fbacked Yes9c784.55$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes6c783.03$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.385738.6%22 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd220…c03dbacked Yes8c741.84$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes8c732.58$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.941346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfecc…8477backed Yes10c717.43$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes6c715.53$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.87130%0 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked Yes12c703.57$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.253941%16 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes2c690.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.14837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-47.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd423…99e9backed Yes11c686.56$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Yes11c682.79$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.413850%19 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5629…de17backed Yes4c664.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.