TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$953,319
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$502,398

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $953,319 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6413…ab24backed Yes3c48,639$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.5660%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes4c34,864$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.169839.8%39 W · 59 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a3d…fea1backed Yes2c33,635$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.71822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-44.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes1c33,574$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.78190%0 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes1c22,431$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.23616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-59%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc62d…74fcbacked Yes5c22,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9850%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x876b…1703backed Yes3c21,473$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.536237.1%23 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5999…ae94backed Yes2c20,465$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.837951.9%41 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes2c20,330$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.9114337.8%54 W · 89 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c17,945$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.412920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c17,400$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.05811.2%1 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes3c13,100$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.68754%47 W · 40 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe0b…06acbacked Yes3c11,574$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes2c11,411$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.041735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-46.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes2c10,850$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.15240%0 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c10,820$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.781491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c10,092$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.451,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ef…1faabacked Yes4c10,000$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.82119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-88%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7992…48bfbacked Yes2c9,847$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c8,400$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes1c8,228$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6280%0 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes2c7,498$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.6114421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4940…e353backed Yes3c7,419$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b71…cb46backed Yes2c7,400$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes1c7,384$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.342817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+135.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7f…21bfbacked Yes2c6,619$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-73.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0019…6629backed Yes2c6,378$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.42862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Yes3c6,063$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf6…5219backed Yes1c6,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3550%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c5,796$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.982560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x819f…f3e7backed Yes2c5,646$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c5,444$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.012560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes2c5,441$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.283638.9%14 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1682…26cabacked Yes3c5,290$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.091921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-59.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd679…7c88backed Yes4c5,215$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf90…5637backed Yes2c5,079$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.041414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a84…5340backed Yes5c4,852$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f7…ab44backed Yes2c4,783$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes2c4,770$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5725837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd34b…93a4backed Yes2c4,693$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ad5…d079backed Yes0c4,544$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes2c4,459$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.016334.9%22 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes3c4,425$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.76796.3%5 W · 74 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ffd…e26bbacked Yes3c4,377$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Yes2c4,317$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.52714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-80.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x746a…96e2backed Yes5c4,278$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes2c4,228$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9314339.2%56 W · 87 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f43…f942backed Yes2c4,167$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.45922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-62.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes4c4,110$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.516931.9%22 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b7f…400dbacked Yes5c4,085$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes2c4,037$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7721035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes0c3,900$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.67611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3871…f0c7backed Yes3c3,733$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37b0…b040backed Yes0c3,702$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd14d…8e78backed Yes1c3,618$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1b4…8383backed Yes1c3,611$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c55…a595backed Yes1c3,347$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes3c3,302$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.58130%0 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12f7…b645backed Yes3c3,256$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb492…12dabacked Yes6c3,251$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.251010%1 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-81.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba8c…b464backed Yes2c3,241$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91b3…77d6backed Yes3c3,221$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5890%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes1c3,170$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.54230%0 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfecc…8477backed Yes8c3,146$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b46…78bdbacked Yes4c3,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1082821.4%6 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-53%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8fbd…0b14backed Yes3c2,954$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.06119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba2…d79cbacked Yes3c2,928$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e8…64b9backed Yes1c2,893$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…8220backed Yes2c2,717$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes2c2,607$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3436945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Yes3c2,600$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.341241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbec2…0e17backed Yes1c2,484$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes2c2,474$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.49590%0 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c2,463$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.713042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62b1…fe7cbacked Yes4c2,462$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90c8…9617backed Yes3c2,400$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes3c2,397$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.796141%25 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc1f…a246backed Yes3c2,282$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.51250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9142…a905backed Yes1c2,273$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x460b…e4ecbacked Yes4c2,159$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad9c…0002backed Yes1c2,100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed Yes2c2,090$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.072969%20 W · 9 L+5.4wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+52.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa148…f655backed Yes5c2,049$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes4c2,040$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.832977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes2c2,038$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.76790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6ac…19cabacked Yes1c2,023$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes2c2,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482050%10 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+45.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x461c…20abbacked Yes6c2,000$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+85.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6204…421abacked Yes1c2,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263020%6 W · 24 L-6.4wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-73.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb7c1…40d7backed Yes2c2,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.98520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13db…3e4dbacked Yes2c1,998$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe308…309cbacked Yes4c1,992$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.54427.3%12 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c1,950$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.66731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74c1…ab9bbacked Yes3c1,792$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.452751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe66e…55fdbacked Yes1c1,758$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87a6…7e29backed Yes2c1,732$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.821040%4 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb16…7670backed Yes6c1,721$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe82a…c8a6backed Yes3c1,709$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9fc9…cde1backed Yes3c1,687$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes3c1,685$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.772937.9%11 W · 18 L+4.9wins+0.17per pick21cpaid+50.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.