Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia by August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8e14df679395be385599f22b71e6b25908ab97212b28aa511d21adbe6b80c2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked No | 1c | 2,900$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -59%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 2c | 2,360$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 63c | 2,010$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.89 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4222…8aa7backed Yes | 59c | 879.67$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.01 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 42c | 734.01$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.7 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404e…a0d3backed No | 10c | 652.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 55c | 581.4$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.77 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 51c | 549.99$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.5 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 55c | 537.5$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.29 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 45c | 474$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.84 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 59c | 466.82$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.85 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed No | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 52c | 394.19$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.24 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 68c | 382.97$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.21 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b21…deb6backed No | 45c | 358.97$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.54 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes | 59c | 292.74$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.63 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 7c | 289.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked No | 30c | 271.35$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…ada5backed Yes | 58c | 266.65$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.65 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd07…5424backed No | 41c | 244.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 241$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 67c | 240$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…abd5backed No | 53c | 213.58$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4881…39e0backed No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…19a1backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 46c | 199.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26fd…4cc8backed Yes | 60c | 193.45$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb09e…0e53backed No | 15c | 190$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 49c | 167$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 24c | 160.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 66c | 152$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 147.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…6ba8backed No | 34c | 143.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc238…ffe8backed No | 50c | 127.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…6b09backed No | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed No | 47c | 121$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac1…718abacked No | 34c | 119.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0442…74b6backed No | 43c | 115.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6949…a179backed No | 47c | 112.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…1ab6backed Yes | 59c | 110.07$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8166…6a51backed No | 46c | 108.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…5755backed No | 41c | 106.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 45c | 103.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…710ebacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 40c | 87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3b…7890backed No | 41c | 86.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…c75cbacked Yes | 65c | 84.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e80…4dddbacked Yes | 60c | 84.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a79…8e9abacked Yes | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…5bb5backed Yes | 65c | 76.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…a16abacked Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc652…11b1backed Yes | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…12cfbacked No | 31c | 66.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 36c | 61.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked Yes | 63c | 60.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…b576backed Yes | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 45c | 54.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…704fbacked No | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…c364backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…f2ffbacked Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…cb6bbacked Yes | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248c…5834backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…0e4dbacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…f92ebacked No | 54c | 36.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…7d73backed No | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 39c | 35.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb103…8faebacked Yes | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…d3a5backed Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…d303backed No | 38c | 31.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9968…4e39backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +67%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd95e…ffa8backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…b15ebacked Yes | 54c | 27.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…d82cbacked Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…aa45backed Yes | 64c | 20.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…6424backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…b2f6backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e27…a266backed Yes | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f6…4505backed Yes | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.