Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41eda073eeca4071d3a643a527bf8549851ff16c7e4b924a007671cb11920f98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,775,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,378,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,775,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,569 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x443e…fef8backed Yes | 21c | 233,472$48,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,349.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 77c | 223,876$171,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,432.33 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 22c | 180,251$38,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,984.11 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66af…cecebacked Yes | 7c | 177,742$11,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,713.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 12c | 130,009$15,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,475.3 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…e1c9backed Yes | 21c | 115,669$23,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,969.6 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 8c | 110,505$8,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,356.82 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 28c | 104,405$29,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,178.52 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 17c | 92,671$15,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,504.37 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 76c | 82,895$63,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,647.4 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 14c | 81,903$11,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,856.07 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 23c | 80,145$18,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,628.15 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 5c | 77,876$3,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,595.04 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 15c | 75,512$11,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,421.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 11c | 68,874$7,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,566.86 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 13c | 68,841$8,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,811.14 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x877c…007cbacked Yes | 13c | 65,297$8,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,357.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602f…d46abacked Yes | 23c | 64,036$14,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,744.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed Yes | 16c | 63,567$10,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,192.03 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0f…7b84backed Yes | 16c | 61,315$9,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,813.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1f…8643backed No | 59c | 59,600$35,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,275.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 16c | 58,283$9,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,341.08 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8719backed No | 61c | 58,024$35,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,629.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb657…6c1fbacked Yes | 39c | 58,024$22,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,629.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcb…3e9ebacked Yes | 25c | 57,839$14,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,405.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef83…96ecbacked No | 73c | 57,788$41,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,853.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 74c | 56,690$41,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,843.22 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…4b40backed Yes | 16c | 43,457$6,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,953.14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 43,105$5,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,555.72 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 76c | 41,463$31,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,158.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 13c | 41,224$5,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,342.63 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…201bbacked Yes | 15c | 40,117$6,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,172.92 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed Yes | 12c | 39,669$4,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,659.22 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffa…b3c4backed Yes | 12c | 37,901$4,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,670.72 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 20c | 37,789$7,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,568.35 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 15c | 37,586$5,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,530.38 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…6662backed Yes | 10c | 36,573$3,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,682.11 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x674f…df74backed Yes | 17c | 35,000$6,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked No | 67c | 32,854$21,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,900.66 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 8c | 32,593$2,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,448.53 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed Yes | 19c | 31,624$6,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,022.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74db…4ca5backed Yes | 25c | 31,579$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 27c | 31,372$8,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,500.01 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…5442backed Yes | 26c | 30,087$7,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,733.16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4a…4500backed Yes | 3c | 29,927$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…7ed6backed Yes | 18c | 29,241$5,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,357 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 26c | 27,705$7,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,136.77 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 23c | 27,173$6,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,380.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 21c | 27,000$5,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,670 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758c…074abacked Yes | 9c | 25,918$2,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.38 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 6c | 25,723$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.18 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 10c | 25,426$2,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,534.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 77c | 25,350$19,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,921.49 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…1ef8backed Yes | 48c | 25,119$12,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,169.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f2…2cd0backed Yes | 15c | 24,644$3,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,642.37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 77c | 24,201$18,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,627.85 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…5666backed Yes | 1c | 24,074$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe852…0235backed No | 80c | 23,773$19,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,765.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ba…6a77backed Yes | 16c | 22,613$3,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,648.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…e62abacked Yes | 15c | 22,173$3,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,218.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed No | 80c | 21,579$17,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,315.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb9…7557backed Yes | 15c | 21,288$3,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,103.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe140…78d4backed No | 77c | 21,144$16,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,946.23 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 61c | 20,950$12,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,160.03 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…657fbacked Yes | 22c | 20,881$4,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,555.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 1c | 20,233$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.79 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Yes | 19c | 20,223$3,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,777.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee5…dc0dbacked Yes | 2c | 19,716$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 20c | 19,641$3,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,911 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked No | 78c | 19,454$15,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,311.1 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe14…a1aebacked Yes | 20c | 19,230$3,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,888.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 80c | 19,206$15,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,920.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc481…471fbacked Yes | 20c | 19,167$3,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,829.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 5c | 19,010$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.22 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 0c | 18,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 16c | 17,814$2,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,784.82 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf75b…672ebacked Yes | 25c | 17,809$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5572…984ebacked Yes | 7c | 17,732$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.4 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591f…5610backed Yes | 5c | 17,446$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.07 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x393c…7a6dbacked Yes | 16c | 17,363$2,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,729 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 11c | 17,340$1,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,907.65 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 20c | 17,073$3,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,437.09 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 16c | 17,000$2,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,667.48 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 9c | 16,964$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.46 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 10c | 16,637$1,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,691.16 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 21c | 16,482$3,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,490.9 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 17c | 16,418$2,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,841.99 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5c82backed Yes | 13c | 16,364$2,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,127.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 69c | 16,059$11,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,952.73 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e59…b85abacked Yes | 21c | 16,046$3,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,395.21 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x114c…13eabacked Yes | 20c | 15,711$3,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,209.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…0929backed No | 79c | 15,140$11,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,149.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Yes | 12c | 15,019$1,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…f867backed Yes | 18c | 15,008$2,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,757.91 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…a061backed Yes | 10c | 14,956$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…1472backed Yes | 31c | 14,755$4,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,532.45 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 78c | 14,550$11,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,179 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf289…2415backed Yes | 22c | 14,455$3,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,142.25 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Yes | 21c | 14,000$2,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,935.81 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…36b0backed Yes | 21c | 13,820$2,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,959.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.