TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,663,009
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,784,697

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,663,009 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,029 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100180%0 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7277…ab80backed Yes41c60,930$24,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,959.951338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick59cpaid-30.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2796…b4f0backed Yes3c47,000$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.98560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5b1…bb91backed No78c18,487$14,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,139.124050%20 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed Yes2c17,925$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.16684.4%3 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid+123.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafce…c2f6backed Yes0c17,625$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.551926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick46cpaid-41.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xae5c…53ddbacked Yes33c16,660$5,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,435.431216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes18c15,547$2,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,730.187812.8%10 W · 68 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16c9…65febacked Yes1c15,026$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa996…99dabacked Yes1c15,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes28c14,912$4,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,106.23737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb623…476dbacked Yes3c14,870$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.89728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick15cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb15b…5215backed No80c14,401$11,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,926.692369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc37…fa31backed No67c13,749$9,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,588.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked No76c13,452$10,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,186.673070%21 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf915…8720backed No59c13,288$7,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,424.16520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-66.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes1c11,968$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8115020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…163fbacked No42c10,373$4,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,016.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb701…3730backed Yes58c10,373$6,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,016.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c79…1d00backed Yes16c10,166$1,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,624.254330.2%13 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+0.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed Yes6c10,015$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes8c10,000$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.78296.9%2 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes2c9,843$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200180%0 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d04…f6b8backed Yes15c9,797$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.5550%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c9,788$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.511,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdef6…f63abacked Yes45c9,331$4,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,199.01850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x478f…f5d9backed Yes35c8,613$3,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000.840%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c8,273$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.312324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x576e…6247backed Yes28c8,000$2,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,26010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes10c7,949$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.841315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-78.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes1c7,938$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.386033.3%20 W · 40 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d16…e798backed Yes12c7,780$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.18140%0 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0329…8b03backed No70c7,500$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,249.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d46…487abacked No59c7,487$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,087.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed No20c7,369$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,918.151770.6%12 W · 5 L+7.5wins+0.44per pick27cpaid+155.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x0cbb…6299backed No70c7,272$5,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,182.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69b9…1284backed No74c6,804$5,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,762.131593.3%14 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick69cpaid+34.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2f34…9188backed Yes15c6,744$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1e…968cbacked No69c6,743$4,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,117.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfca2…a745backed No6c6,406$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,006.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick16cpaid+1,100.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3ba…5770backed Yes65c6,376$4,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,167.41618.8%3 W · 13 L-4.2wins-0.26per pick45cpaid-52.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x78cc…c56ebacked No14c6,206$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,345.061844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x038e…9d60backed Yes6c6,193$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.321241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes19c6,090$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.6529747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes10c6,031$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6004257.1%24 W · 18 L+7.7wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+37.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes6c5,957$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.91664.5%3 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-60.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d2c…a07dbacked Yes1c5,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No53c5,251$2,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,446.27150.7%36 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes4c5,176$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.241520%3 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd914…0d9abacked No58c5,174$2,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,179.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb29…fb86backed Yes5c5,164$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.15224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e10…79c2backed Yes19c5,031$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4176…fd86backed Yes2c4,807$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe3e…777abacked Yes11c4,803$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes22c4,765$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.9130238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf434…3597backed Yes14c4,744$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes3c4,729$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.272934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cd2…7f85backed No66c4,556$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,556.261283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+38%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes1c4,538$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefbd…8086backed No16c4,317$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,624.581030%3 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+56.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No72c4,196$3,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.534856.3%27 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x298b…066fbacked Yes12c4,130$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.39185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-50.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x353c…682fbacked Yes9c4,031$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.631216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-69.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x33dc…bb81backed No69c4,008$2,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.611833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58b7…7859backed Yes27c4,000$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,09210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x387b…cceabacked No62c4,000$2,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5402100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5150…fe1abacked Yes30c4,000$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e67…7c3cbacked Yes40c4,000$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,58010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc15b…01efbacked No71c4,000$2,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1801100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…d89ebacked No70c4,000$2,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac43…46b2backed No71c4,000$2,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04f8…ac46backed No71c4,000$2,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1601100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9525…6933backed Yes30c4,000$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb95b…0bf9backed Yes39c4,000$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c6a…a750backed No74c4,000$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0601100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick74cpaid+36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Yes40c4,000$1,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,59260%0 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5345…8ccfbacked No61c4,000$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5601100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x967c…f506backed Yes30c4,000$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes47c3,870$1,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800.944233.3%14 W · 28 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No66c3,837$2,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.71785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick56cpaid+52.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked No79c3,734$2,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.895844.8%26 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d76…5658backed Yes1c3,721$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No76c3,625$2,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.2623846.6%111 W · 127 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0dd3…7c76backed Yes9c3,563$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f7b…03e0backed Yes6c3,510$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92ab…8591backed Yes1c3,342$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec50…45ffbacked Yes7c3,253$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74b7…fb52backed Yes5c3,218$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1111…ca23backed No47c3,158$1,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,670.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x989b…7521backed No64c3,157$2,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.841258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0647…87e6backed Yes3c3,010$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabd6…58dbbacked Yes36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No29c2,962$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0943969.2%27 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No72c2,795$2,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.697444.6%33 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bf7…43a2backed Yes1c2,604$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a4c…2e40backed Yes29c2,600$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b92…45eebacked Yes39c2,576$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,01070%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed No4c2,573$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,473.3714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick5cpaid+267.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f0…d2a1backed No69c2,554$1,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.07771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick76cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0808…23d3backed Yes39c2,400$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.