Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7e6e54bf46892aec7f865e84d7695e3b1d7686302bf28ccc0be5847e85a65ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,663,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,784,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,663,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,029 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…ab80backed Yes | 41c | 60,930$24,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,959.95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…b4f0backed Yes | 3c | 47,000$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b1…bb91backed No | 78c | 18,487$14,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,139.12 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 2c | 17,925$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.16 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed Yes | 0c | 17,625$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…53ddbacked Yes | 33c | 16,660$5,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,435.43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 18c | 15,547$2,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,730.18 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…65febacked Yes | 1c | 15,026$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…99dabacked Yes | 1c | 15,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 28c | 14,912$4,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,106.2 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…476dbacked Yes | 3c | 14,870$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb15b…5215backed No | 80c | 14,401$11,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,926.69 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc37…fa31backed No | 67c | 13,749$9,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,588.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 76c | 13,452$10,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,186.67 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf915…8720backed No | 59c | 13,288$7,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,424.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 1c | 11,968$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…163fbacked No | 42c | 10,373$4,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,016.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…3730backed Yes | 58c | 10,373$6,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,016.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed Yes | 16c | 10,166$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.25 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Yes | 6c | 10,015$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes | 8c | 10,000$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.78 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 2c | 9,843$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…f6b8backed Yes | 15c | 9,797$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 9,788$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.51 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…f63abacked Yes | 45c | 9,331$4,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,199.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Yes | 35c | 8,613$3,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 8,273$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.31 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576e…6247backed Yes | 28c | 8,000$2,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,260 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 10c | 7,949$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.84 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 1c | 7,938$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 12c | 7,780$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.18 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0329…8b03backed No | 70c | 7,500$5,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,249.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…487abacked No | 59c | 7,487$4,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,087.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed No | 20c | 7,369$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,918.15 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +7.5wins | +0.44per pick | 27cpaid | +155.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…6299backed No | 70c | 7,272$5,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,182.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…1284backed No | 74c | 6,804$5,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,762.13 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 69cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f34…9188backed Yes | 15c | 6,744$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1e…968cbacked No | 69c | 6,743$4,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,117.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca2…a745backed No | 6c | 6,406$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,006.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +1,100.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…5770backed Yes | 65c | 6,376$4,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,167.4 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x78cc…c56ebacked No | 14c | 6,206$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,345.06 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038e…9d60backed Yes | 6c | 6,193$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 19c | 6,090$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.65 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 10c | 6,031$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 6c | 5,957$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.91 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2c…a07dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 53c | 5,251$2,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,446.2 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 4c | 5,176$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.24 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd914…0d9abacked No | 58c | 5,174$2,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,179.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…fb86backed Yes | 5c | 5,164$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.15 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e10…79c2backed Yes | 19c | 5,031$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4176…fd86backed Yes | 2c | 4,807$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3e…777abacked Yes | 11c | 4,803$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 22c | 4,765$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.91 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf434…3597backed Yes | 14c | 4,744$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 4,729$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.27 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…7f85backed No | 66c | 4,556$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.26 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe144…487fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,538$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…8086backed No | 16c | 4,317$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,624.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 72c | 4,196$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.53 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…066fbacked Yes | 12c | 4,130$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.39 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353c…682fbacked Yes | 9c | 4,031$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.63 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…bb81backed No | 69c | 4,008$2,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.61 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b7…7859backed Yes | 27c | 4,000$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387b…cceabacked No | 62c | 4,000$2,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5150…fe1abacked Yes | 30c | 4,000$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e67…7c3cbacked Yes | 40c | 4,000$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15b…01efbacked No | 71c | 4,000$2,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…d89ebacked No | 70c | 4,000$2,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…46b2backed No | 71c | 4,000$2,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f8…ac46backed No | 71c | 4,000$2,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9525…6933backed Yes | 30c | 4,000$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95b…0bf9backed Yes | 39c | 4,000$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6a…a750backed No | 74c | 4,000$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Yes | 40c | 4,000$1,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,592 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5345…8ccfbacked No | 61c | 4,000$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x967c…f506backed Yes | 30c | 4,000$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 47c | 3,870$1,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.94 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 66c | 3,837$2,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.71 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 79c | 3,734$2,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.89 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d76…5658backed Yes | 1c | 3,721$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 3,625$2,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.26 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…7c76backed Yes | 9c | 3,563$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…03e0backed Yes | 6c | 3,510$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92ab…8591backed Yes | 1c | 3,342$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec50…45ffbacked Yes | 7c | 3,253$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…fb52backed Yes | 5c | 3,218$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1111…ca23backed No | 47c | 3,158$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989b…7521backed No | 64c | 3,157$2,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…87e6backed Yes | 3c | 3,010$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…58dbbacked Yes | 36c | 3,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 29c | 2,962$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,094 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 72c | 2,795$2,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.69 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf7…43a2backed Yes | 1c | 2,604$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…2e40backed Yes | 29c | 2,600$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b92…45eebacked Yes | 39c | 2,576$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed No | 4c | 2,573$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,473.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +267.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…d2a1backed No | 69c | 2,554$1,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0808…23d3backed Yes | 39c | 2,400$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.