Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe23452c2b953c4aea3dcfd0633a28e66d4dd3c07df9bce052d20ba36c6152783
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc01…d914backed No | 2c | 15,272$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.58 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +9.0wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…b16fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1061…9158backed No | 2c | 5,145$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a13…f178backed No | 0c | 3,267$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +529.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c6…da07backed No | 1c | 3,227$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 6c | 2,314$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.28 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc521…7f08backed No | 1c | 1,877$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 79c | 1,379$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.15 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 10c | 783$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4710…01a0backed No | 1c | 758.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 8c | 162.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 118$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…1c8cbacked No | 12c | 104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a5…0433backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 18c | 71.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac3…6a0ebacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of February?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.