AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4edfcf9fd9889864290d34f1902ef51420989e5922b8208bf46bc0689ce6adbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,190,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,934,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,190,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 708 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d90…ca3ebacked No | 0c | 1,157,707$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x741f…36d1backed No | 0c | 629,476$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8003…25c3backed No | 0c | 321,237$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b4…6322backed No | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…f6bcbacked No | 0c | 264,667$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked No | 0c | 238,123$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b21…166ebacked No | 0c | 173,541$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…7cacbacked No | 0c | 163,160$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked No | 0c | 162,812$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff1…c85ebacked No | 0c | 138,591$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…fdb3backed No | 0c | 137,558$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.58 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…2dd9backed No | 0c | 136,310$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d13…bb89backed No | 0c | 128,098$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…bc70backed No | 1c | 124,589$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a2…03f5backed No | 0c | 116,323$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05fb…71a6backed No | 0c | 110,142$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d39…82cabacked No | 1c | 102,518$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed No | 0c | 99,915$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.52 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa10…3fc9backed No | 0c | 90,887$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa89…a673backed No | 0c | 84,550$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9a…a473backed No | 0c | 82,570$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7f…3223backed No | 0c | 81,977$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a6…fe97backed No | 0c | 81,541$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaff…489bbacked No | 0c | 67,720$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…315bbacked No | 0c | 66,730$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a11…f11abacked No | 2c | 63,452$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9880…82d6backed No | 0c | 62,480$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92fa…7d02backed No | 1c | 60,337$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa296…386cbacked No | 0c | 58,824$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 0c | 54,820$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…2bf6backed No | 1c | 53,030$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.47 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…cd2bbacked No | 0c | 50,887$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1f…f3c4backed No | 0c | 50,099$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…c16abacked No | 0c | 49,822$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255b…70d4backed No | 0c | 49,440$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d6…dcabbacked No | 0c | 47,809$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7410…8a7bbacked No | 0c | 40,100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8965…c225backed No | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba8…829dbacked No | 0c | 38,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc8…7c5fbacked No | 0c | 37,860$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…3036backed No | 0c | 36,605$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543d…f60dbacked No | 0c | 35,685$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked No | 1c | 34,656$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…0279backed No | 0c | 32,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dc…0fc3backed No | 0c | 30,200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c87…81c3backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4160…cf74backed No | 0c | 28,715$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa555…3a5abacked No | 0c | 28,244$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…818bbacked No | 1c | 25,455$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.37per pick | 27cpaid | +226%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e8…efe0backed No | 0c | 24,970$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…e60cbacked No | 0c | 24,740$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa0…8da6backed No | 0c | 24,089$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcb…66e0backed No | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdadf…b1edbacked No | 0c | 23,953$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a6…359bbacked No | 0c | 23,270$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe199…0befbacked No | 1c | 23,090$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99db…a798backed No | 5c | 22,350$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…d54cbacked No | 0c | 21,500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf22…48dfbacked No | 0c | 21,234$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541d…6608backed No | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…b463backed No | 11c | 20,374$2,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,141.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…6414backed No | 0c | 20,071$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9c…c2c0backed No | 0c | 20,017$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…dfc9backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…cb8abacked No | 6c | 19,450$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.31 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea3…9fcbbacked No | 0c | 18,356$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edf…7f1abacked No | 0c | 18,053$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe5…ee3dbacked No | 0c | 17,632$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…afd9backed No | 0c | 17,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f3…6b89backed No | 0c | 16,390$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…39cdbacked No | 1c | 16,145$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7950…1d42backed No | 3c | 16,063$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…61f2backed No | 0c | 15,744$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba7…ae61backed Yes | 78c | 15,222$11,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,389.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…4325backed No | 0c | 15,022$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353d…3365backed No | 6c | 15,004$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f6…985bbacked No | 0c | 14,792$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10dd…a797backed No | 3c | 14,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…6471backed No | 23c | 13,797$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2994…fde2backed No | 0c | 13,115$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a2…c111backed No | 0c | 12,558$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…0a42backed No | 0c | 12,273$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…48b5backed No | 0c | 11,720$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked No | 0c | 11,329$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc77f…9542backed No | 0c | 11,300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…2f4dbacked No | 0c | 11,219$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf622…162ebacked No | 3c | 11,043$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x715a…f03ebacked No | 0c | 11,014$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…89c7backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed No | 1c | 11,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc97…fd78backed No | 20c | 10,848$2,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,142 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5645…658bbacked No | 2c | 10,608$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…eabdbacked No | 0c | 10,508$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…94a9backed No | 1c | 10,314$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…bd21backed No | 0c | 10,159$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8899…32e0backed No | 2c | 10,088$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…a852backed No | 9c | 10,002$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e03…7f54backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?this page
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 10?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 12?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 13?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 14?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 15?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 16?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 17?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 18?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 19?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 20?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 25?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 31 or later?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.