AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c23f9d083259e8d7ddad30f567e9920712aa6eabd50c4f68e0bef3e972de882
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $214,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $182,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92fa…7d02backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe5…ee3dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,392$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb36b…7804backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb4…96b0backed Yes | 1c | 10,963$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…bc70backed Yes | 1c | 10,738$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8003…25c3backed Yes | 8c | 7,238$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b21…166ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,342$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…f6bcbacked Yes | 0c | 5,333$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff47…d81fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,334$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa10…3fc9backed Yes | 1c | 3,060$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,562$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828a…7e18backed Yes | 4c | 2,540$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,252$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 6c | 2,115$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,003$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed Yes | 3c | 1,819$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed Yes | 10c | 1,585$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.72 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95a…aee7backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…1d22backed Yes | 15c | 1,365$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +220.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…b50bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,154$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -21%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be2…8d24backed Yes | 7c | 1,121$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbef…7de2backed Yes | 8c | 1,026$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…3ea8backed Yes | 3c | 1,012$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8435…750dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…4449backed Yes | 7c | 923.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…6805backed Yes | 6c | 696.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 3c | 682.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…9085backed Yes | 2c | 631.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7950…1d42backed Yes | 5c | 605.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf1…5583backed Yes | 10c | 602.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8a…4ed9backed Yes | 2c | 600$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 7c | 573.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f04…c263backed Yes | 6c | 539.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a2…c111backed Yes | 3c | 518.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0232…2646backed Yes | 10c | 509.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0773…9fefbacked Yes | 6c | 503.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc97…fd78backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 9c | 495.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 474.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…1665backed Yes | 4c | 461.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 8c | 444.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…2d19backed Yes | 7c | 441.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9e…f13abacked Yes | 5c | 376.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 3c | 360$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 7c | 341.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x142f…9455backed Yes | 15c | 330$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2717…d031backed Yes | 5c | 313.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7352…e156backed Yes | 11c | 309.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd890…5db9backed Yes | 7c | 305.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…dee9backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 7c | 282.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 8c | 277.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked Yes | 14c | 248.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88af…0e74backed Yes | 6c | 237.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf60d…ad82backed Yes | 6c | 235.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 5c | 227.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…ce91backed Yes | 10c | 221.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1a…1989backed Yes | 10c | 208.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed Yes | 5c | 200.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…33a7backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa1…f742backed Yes | 6c | 182.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c9…2b4bbacked Yes | 11c | 133.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 9c | 125.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed Yes | 10c | 124.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 103$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…be8dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…4414backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…a525backed Yes | 15c | 95.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…7cd2backed Yes | 17c | 78.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 12?this page
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 10?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?Yes won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 13?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 14?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 15?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 16?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 17?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 18?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 19?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 20?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 25?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 31 or later?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.