AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e7d6bf27204d37572ce4e0c000e8da27951b00d43117c6e5e6841d6c8e49833
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadf…b1edbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3039…8a62backed Yes | 1c | 9,752$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 0c | 3,828$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99db…a798backed Yes | 4c | 2,734$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.06 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4822…4fa7backed Yes | 2c | 1,739$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…2e1fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,698$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,275$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,228$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Yes | 2c | 806.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…d4debacked Yes | 2c | 789.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb8…4d53backed Yes | 3c | 750$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 15?this page
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 10?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?Yes won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 12?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 13?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 14?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 16?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 17?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 18?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 19?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 20?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 25?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 31 or later?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.