TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strike on Syria by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$343,320
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$340,416

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $343,320 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 338 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8063…b886backed Yes56c19,670$11,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,065.041668.8%11 W · 5 L+4.5wins+0.28per pick41cpaid+188.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3bd7…bd04backed No72c15,172$10,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,223.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d7…0b5ebacked Yes12c7,644$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.71250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes9c7,440$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.1651138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2b8…9d3bbacked No74c6,776$4,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,782.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes22c6,523$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,464.9512525.6%32 W · 93 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f18…5515backed Yes13c6,074$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.35933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+230.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfad…6094backed Yes23c5,108$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes37c5,040$1,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,882.6438237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes5c4,250$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.294769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No75c4,226$3,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.5713950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes3c4,000$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.453588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Yes10c3,994$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.43135.5%11 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+46.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes13c3,427$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.7448630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes16c3,266$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.5845843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes14c3,123$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.752128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes10c2,796$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.1115023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa377…a2ccbacked Yes11c2,555$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.812619.2%5 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+117.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…72bebacked No80c2,502$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.211957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes16c2,500$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.437816.7%13 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No79c2,354$1,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.761662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes21c2,325$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.2540433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes4c2,244$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.181250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed Yes1c2,233$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.58660%0 W · 66 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c2,156$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.481,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes7c2,131$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.392384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes20c2,067$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.44519.8%5 W · 46 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8026…2f99backed Yes6c1,931$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.51442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bb3…5a71backed Yes23c1,735$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+90.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xece0…7cdfbacked Yes20c1,732$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.971513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes17c1,720$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.581936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+80.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes14c1,700$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2383935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed No68c1,616$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.895639.3%22 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes20c1,598$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.3212037.5%45 W · 75 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes15c1,596$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.4719829.3%58 W · 140 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes7c1,593$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.852835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes24c1,588$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.2340939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c1,570$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.767135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes16c1,568$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.4620549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3a5…5f3cbacked No51c1,499$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.075219.2%10 W · 42 L-12.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-62.8%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes26c1,496$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.2216447.6%78 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dfd…6a46backed No73c1,441$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes6c1,374$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.813636.1%13 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-44.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8815…6d51backed Yes15c1,365$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick11cpaid+660.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa39d…b97fbacked Yes20c1,353$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f5e…a628backed Yes12c1,323$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.69119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes9c1,228$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.389434%32 W · 62 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No53c1,224$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.753148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaae9…d661backed Yes10c1,218$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.44633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-48.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked No79c1,158$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.412075%15 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x985b…ce2cbacked No50c1,117$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.532100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes33c1,100$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.9820247%95 W · 107 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b09…e10fbacked Yes18c1,091$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.55450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No72c1,081$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.7414129.8%42 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes9c1,057$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b13…5957backed Yes1c1,043$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.046338.1%24 W · 39 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x743a…ddcdbacked Yes20c1,035$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes6c1,005$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.65306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceca…3f67backed Yes39c1,005$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.434348.8%21 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc450…a5b8backed Yes25c868$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2171050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcc…5bd9backed Yes12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes11c823.21$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5223839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2baf…1ed4backed No77c816.32$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.44955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38c1…2f84backed Yes25c785$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+24.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed Yes23c779.88$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.252330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes11c777.51$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.437012.9%9 W · 61 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-60.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3710…2b8dbacked Yes18c768.86$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.45540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+91%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf072…cee7backed Yes18c749.97$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1352927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes9c741$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.771976.6%13 W · 184 L-0.8wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed Yes18c736.61$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.692123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8809…6e34backed Yes11c718.13$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.51936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+60.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3039…8a62backed Yes15c712.98$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.61478.5%4 W · 43 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-51.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x331b…3169backed No80c712.85$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebb4…f390backed No57c712.61$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c700$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.14195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c697.74$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.8489617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes5c683.33$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6712138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes28c680.54$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.8613342.1%56 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No59c677.62$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.4724839.5%98 W · 150 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c36…9433backed No74c677.41$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.414540%18 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked No49c675.58$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.3615751%80 W · 77 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes14c666.54$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1511424.6%28 W · 86 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes27c623.38$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.6810244.1%45 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49e7…9e5bbacked Yes22c600.33$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No59c600$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24617931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes13c600$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7856336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x04e8…a0bfbacked Yes17c600$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-58.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed Yes21c597.98$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.641957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+25%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes51c591.74$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30122262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes14c589.96$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8819428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8349…69e5backed No75c579$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.75475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+34%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa79f…53b7backed No33c578.16$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.55450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+63.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a80…d7fbbacked Yes14c574.56$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes35c573.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Yes15c568.84$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.261735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5f…d395backed No75c554.31$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.581275%9 W · 3 L+4.0wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+110%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa17f…8f46backed Yes18c545.7$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05a9…7175backed Yes18c531$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes8c527.31$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.79836%5 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No56c526.07$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.3231649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.