Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c5d29108e310c971310a90e986725427c920eb622d1f16eb38ac05bccb5c77d

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 16, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,677,234
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,469,444

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,677,234 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 840 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8bad…4c75backed No	0c	101,000$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae49…6323backed No	0c	44,967$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	69c	39,503$27,130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,372.94	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	45c	34,381$15,473 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,908.46	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c8…f2efbacked No	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	20c	29,343$5,916 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23,427.3	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7691…7af7backed No	0c	25,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	+74.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…2beabacked Yes	63c	21,618$13,674 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,943.08	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	15,000$900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,099.6	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	37c	12,985$4,740 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,245.26	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	15c	12,453$1,830 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,623.68	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	25c	12,114$3,057 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,057.15	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	28c	11,292$3,107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,185.53	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	17c	10,775$1,822 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,952.52	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes	20c	10,770$2,142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,627.81	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked No	1c	10,207$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.24	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcac1…2777backed No	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed No	62c	9,188$5,669 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,668.61	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	18c	9,144$1,641 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,503.49	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x583f…2dabbacked No	0c	9,000$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	33cpaid	-78.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	31c	8,794$2,715 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,078.89	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	25c	8,655$2,134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,521.18	563	29.8%168 W · 395 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	46c	8,053$3,710 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,342.97	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00e0…8a94backed Yes	35c	7,658$2,661 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,996.99	37	64.9%24 W · 13 L	+6.5wins	+0.18per pick	47cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	19c	7,543$1,461 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,081.31	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	30c	6,492$1,956 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,536.15	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	18c	6,306$1,128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,178.02	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	17c	6,216$1,037 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,179.09	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	21c	6,100$1,263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,837.14	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	6,000$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,820	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	26c	5,884$1,527 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,356.83	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2909…0b10backed No	2c	5,884$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	55c	5,861$3,219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,219.25	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6c97…988cbacked No	13c	5,691$721 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720.7	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	20c	5,486$1,087 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,399.04	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes	47c	5,472$2,555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,916.98	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed No	0c	5,270$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.31	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	20c	5,120$1,009 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,110.67	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20fe…7968backed Yes	12c	5,107$628 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,479.21	88	19.3%17 W · 71 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	28c	5,005$1,416 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,589.29	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	18c	4,934$898 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,035.33	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes	37c	4,859$1,780 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,078.92	85	27.1%23 W · 62 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	16c	4,684$769 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,915.02	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	15c	4,630$714 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,915.86	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	23c	4,501$1,036 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,465.66	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	19c	4,398$855 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,542.38	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x036c…e41dbacked Yes	5c	4,327$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,117.04	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.8wins	+0.20per pick	13cpaid	+207%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	4,321$358 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,962.69	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	31c	4,288$1,335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,953.09	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	20c	4,255$845 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,409.94	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	30c	4,252$1,293 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,958.92	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa100…bbacbacked Yes	7c	4,231$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,931.28	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.29per pick	5cpaid	+370.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	26c	4,231$1,086 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,144.59	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	19c	4,040$785 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,255.37	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes	71c	4,000$2,822 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,178	30	40%12 W · 18 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes	31c	3,845$1,205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,640.1	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77c8…54b3backed Yes	20c	3,824$766 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,058.3	70	25.7%18 W · 52 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	60c	3,702$2,205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,497.05	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	14c	3,694$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,194.23	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	17c	3,555$591 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,964.04	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	16c	3,510$579 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,931.56	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed No	0c	3,434$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.23	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	8c	3,320$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,069.58	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	19c	3,156$611 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,544.79	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	30c	3,124$952 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,171.41	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	8c	3,101$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,863.64	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bd6…1833backed Yes	22c	3,099$677 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,422.67	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	13c	3,095$395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,699.94	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8854…070cbacked No	0c	3,013$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.88	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	63cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	73c	3,013$2,205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,204.87	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeceb…8d0dbacked No	66c	3,012$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe47c…642abacked Yes	7c	3,003$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,803.17	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+71%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	18c	2,976$540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,436.01	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes	46c	2,974$1,354 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,620	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	8c	2,901$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,665.8	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc9…1938backed Yes	11c	2,896$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,575.94	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes	16c	2,853$464 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,389.23	91	17.6%16 W · 75 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	46c	2,810$1,286 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,523.9	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ffe…ce3ebacked Yes	30c	2,712$806 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,906.78	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8930…393bbacked Yes	15c	2,708$394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,313.95	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	14c	2,610$362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,247.76	879	17.2%151 W · 728 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed Yes	15c	2,603$387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,216.41	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a26…e1e5backed Yes	6c	2,600$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,443.96	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+165%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	24c	2,522$603 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,919.91	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	10c	2,500$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,245	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	30c	2,453$733 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,719.87	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked No	78c	2,449$1,903 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,903.17	164	27.4%45 W · 119 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	15c	2,369$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,019.09	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	7c	2,369$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,214.55	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a20…341cbacked Yes	7c	2,325$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,155.42	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes	19c	2,301$432 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,868.52	259	44.4%115 W · 144 L	+10.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c3c…8f25backed Yes	58c	2,300$1,341 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$959.39	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51f3…7e7fbacked Yes	19c	2,300$435 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,865.28	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15b5…5122backed Yes	16c	2,256$368 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,887.51	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	21c	2,227$457 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,769.99	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182f…de4fbacked Yes	39c	2,175$848 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,326.99	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	10c	2,158$206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,951.9	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	13c	2,120$266 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,853.53	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	8c	2,105$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,929.69	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	15c	2,104$315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,789.27	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event