Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x861e8a874e4e06e44092a9fdef549a520d56ed851fa11e6547398ef1a8b24a49

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 16, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,692,506
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,228,852

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,692,506 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 856 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3cea…21e0backed Yes	1c	295,587$1,815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,814.9	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	12c	30,413$3,798 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,797.63	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	21c	28,000$6,017 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,017.01	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	6c	25,197$1,464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,464.44	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd36a…ecf5backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb5…3649backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64f7…22dcbacked Yes	0c	19,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	22c	18,040$4,001 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,001.01	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	18c	15,233$2,719 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,719.32	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x214c…6378backed No	61c	15,100$9,233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,867	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+114.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb595…7c01backed Yes	39c	15,000$5,850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,850	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	10c	13,819$1,369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,368.94	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	13c	12,784$1,722 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,721.59	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	16c	12,120$1,880 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,880.01	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	6c	12,099$781 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$780.7	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	16c	11,428$1,860 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,859.97	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	2c	10,200$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.99	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	23c	9,179$2,122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,122.3	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	11c	8,587$945 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$944.58	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a26…e1e5backed Yes	6c	7,900$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+165%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	9c	7,739$727 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$726.61	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	9c	7,708$699 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$698.88	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	16c	7,250$1,180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,179.97	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	14c	7,193$1,011 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,011.15	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	76c	7,030$5,372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,657.58	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	18c	6,499$1,159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,158.64	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	6,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	15c	5,936$888 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$888.34	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	25c	5,662$1,397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,397.08	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	17c	5,524$951 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$951.41	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	18c	5,190$939 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$939.11	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef9a…5f7dbacked Yes	19c	5,083$977 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$977.08	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed No	79c	5,018$3,986 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,031.62	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	13c	4,685$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$629.83	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	18c	4,350$797 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$796.91	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	9c	4,324$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.41	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f5…f1c1backed No	80c	4,324$3,444 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$879.8	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	17c	4,292$747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$747.06	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	10c	4,130$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	16c	4,124$674 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$674	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	9c	4,112$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.7	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes	15c	4,102$635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$634.99	233	21%49 W · 184 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	18c	3,977$723 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$722.57	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	16c	3,749$590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$590	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	17c	3,735$634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$634.37	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes	15c	3,590$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550.42	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	+139.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes	6c	3,200$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.9	105	21.9%23 W · 82 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	8c	3,196$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.65	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcce6…77d1backed Yes	9c	3,131$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.92	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked No	75c	3,130$2,362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$768.51	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+42%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3538…c269backed Yes	18c	3,102$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$570	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes	28c	3,037$843 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$842.76	85	27.1%23 W · 62 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdad7…8838backed Yes	37c	3,036$1,117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,117.21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	10c	2,976$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.15	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec1…2a1dbacked Yes	30c	2,957$875 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$875.11	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	21c	2,670$551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550.52	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	9c	2,505$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.66	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	24c	2,500$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	12c	2,490$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.12	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	12c	2,477$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.11	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4b…74d1backed Yes	12c	2,470$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.86	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+3.2wins	+0.15per pick	46cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb12d…d607backed Yes	15c	2,439$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.81	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	9c	2,429$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.78	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	8c	2,348$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.63	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	13c	2,339$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.62	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f18…0d6cbacked Yes	13c	2,314$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x962c…bcd6backed Yes	18c	2,287$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$421.59	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ae…a08ebacked Yes	26c	2,283$599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5898…3dd9backed Yes	16c	2,268$354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.67	61	11.5%7 W · 54 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-27%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	19c	2,266$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433.43	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	10c	2,240$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.49	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	8c	2,180$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.4	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2e…3c35backed Yes	10c	2,169$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.87	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9cd…432cbacked Yes	9c	2,163$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.68	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8d1…2206backed Yes	10c	2,137$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.67	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	15c	2,129$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.82	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	9c	2,128$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.31	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x002f…6a4ebacked Yes	33c	2,100$693 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$692.99	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-82.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	13c	2,100$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf842…d76dbacked Yes	24c	2,073$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.2wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	16c	2,071$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.09	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe201…3f41backed Yes	16c	2,025$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.83	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	19c	2,024$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	74c	2,003$1,488 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$514.83	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	13c	2,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	22c	2,000$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	12c	2,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	11c	2,000$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	10c	2,000$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	8c	2,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	11c	2,000$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.99	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51f3…7e7fbacked Yes	14c	2,000$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.99	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	12c	1,979$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.26	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	9c	1,887$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.65	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes	19c	1,877$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.14	91	17.6%16 W · 75 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	7c	1,877$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.86	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	9c	1,866$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.97	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xecef…75fabacked Yes	37c	1,861$695 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$695.47	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60b4…c103backed Yes	7c	1,803$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+153.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event