Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dd8f79e37b4e76a26451810c133a2530385324b4cdb52712a2700a53569cbf3

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $581,239
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $296,885

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $581,239 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	23,875$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.46	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	1c	14,000$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8ba…540fbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cc4…a9c3backed Yes	0c	9,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	0c	8,485$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.97	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b3…25babacked Yes	0c	7,790$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.43	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	7,100$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	7c	6,001$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.7	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	4c	6,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	5,404$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.01	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	6c	5,400$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.58	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	3c	5,365$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.23	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	2c	5,210$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.58	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	2c	4,462$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.74	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes	6c	4,442$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.99	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	4,413$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.59	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	3c	4,381$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.78	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	4,376$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.45	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	3c	4,192$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.82	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	5c	4,040$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.52	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	3c	3,609$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	6c	3,549$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.74	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb7a…e15abacked Yes	0c	3,310$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.16	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	5cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	5c	3,209$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.31	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	3,152$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.44	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	6c	3,132$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.07	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	5c	3,127$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.55	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	2c	3,000$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.82	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	2,800$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.57	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce0…4b8dbacked Yes	1c	2,720$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.59	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9549…b936backed Yes	5c	2,552$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131	36	25%9 W · 27 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	2,549$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.14	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	2,400$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.26	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	2,381$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.46	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	2,196$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.04	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	3c	2,063$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.73	243	7%17 W · 226 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	2,061$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.77	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	5c	2,029$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18f5…295cbacked Yes	1c	2,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	2,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	6c	1,995$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.7	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ed3…0527backed Yes	1c	1,901$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-85.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16be…23d9backed Yes	10c	1,791$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.98	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	1,658$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.1	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	6c	1,600$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70f8…513dbacked Yes	9c	1,562$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.82	74	17.6%13 W · 61 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	4c	1,525$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.96	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc651…98efbacked Yes	1c	1,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	1c	1,500$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	3c	1,479$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.71	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x00d6…5a62backed Yes	2c	1,457$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.95	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ca9…1f64backed Yes	2c	1,445$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	4c	1,400$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	1,321$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.13	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,282$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.12	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	8c	1,240$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.62	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51f3…7e7fbacked Yes	4c	1,200$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.6	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	12c	1,197$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.04	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	8c	1,166$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xace1…923bbacked Yes	2c	1,164$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.53	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	10c	1,143$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.8	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes	4c	1,123$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	137	17.5%24 W · 113 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3285…745fbacked Yes	10c	1,117$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.85	40	5%2 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d50…b166backed Yes	4c	1,116$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.52	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	6c	1,100$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.7	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	3c	1,100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	1,097$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.51	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	1,090$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.9	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes	4c	1,082$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.11	166	11.4%19 W · 147 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	8c	1,063$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.39	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	1,018$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.95	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	1,011$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.95	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x915b…2729backed Yes	2c	1,006$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	122	18.9%23 W · 99 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	8c	1,000$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.49	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	9c	999.99$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	7c	999.97$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	4c	998.55$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.24	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	3c	988.41$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.88	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe006…b06dbacked Yes	2c	975.29$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	5c	910.16$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.81	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes	8c	901.56$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.86	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes	2c	893.26$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.79	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	2c	862.91$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.33	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4b8…b679backed Yes	4c	852.17$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.42	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes	2c	838.12$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes	6c	824.96$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	117	30.8%36 W · 81 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	+57.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	5c	824.56$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa70e…b5eabacked Yes	7c	812.35$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.5	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes	4c	805.79$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	90	12.2%11 W · 79 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-42%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	6c	800.96$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x47c8…bb19backed Yes	8c	800$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	103	8.7%9 W · 94 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a90…2827backed Yes	7c	800$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.4	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	13c	711.74$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.6	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5957…e94bbacked Yes	7c	694.64$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.68	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	4c	668.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed Yes	5c	660.33$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	13c	657.89$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.5	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	7c	635.24$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.91	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb065…7effbacked Yes	10c	633.95$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.55	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.18per pick	31cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes	4c	611.57$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.64	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event