Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6ca78602333a284661831a5ec02c66e1f433b345d595eb913898f0caeb33b57

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 14, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,427,322
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $289,903

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,427,322 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7d72…a30bbacked Yes	0c	337,026$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.03	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa316…b1b8backed Yes	0c	313,933$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.93	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x950d…c5d2backed Yes	0c	95,460$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.46	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d89…53a0backed Yes	0c	94,701$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.7	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	45,009$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.01	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	44,880$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.88	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce8c…de98backed Yes	0c	43,301$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.3	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d41…ade4backed Yes	1c	29,664$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.33	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	23,460$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.46	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa54e…7326backed Yes	1c	17,457$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaf4…a4debacked Yes	0c	16,236$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.24	24	0%0 W · 24 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf41…9e28backed Yes	0c	13,040$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	12,285$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.83	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes	0c	10,975$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.75	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	10,954$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.92	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	8,512$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.2	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xace1…923bbacked Yes	0c	7,453$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5694…6052backed Yes	1c	7,172$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55f6…6c92backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	6cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c94…9768backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	3c	4,500$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	3,679$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.47	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	0c	3,400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	3,054$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes	3c	3,000$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	46	6.5%3 W · 43 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	1c	2,468$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.16	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	1c	1,949$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.7	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c58…b15cbacked Yes	2c	1,577$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	45	6.7%3 W · 42 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	1c	1,449$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.92	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	1,444$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.43	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	4c	1,442$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.86	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	1c	1,420$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.66	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc9…9229backed Yes	1c	1,321$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	1,255$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,027$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	2c	999.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	2c	671.38$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event