Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9db6ee9c30a47c485cd38730cf47ff79c62632db47f529ac9e5314a3b294a1f

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 16, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,921,279
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,215,281

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,921,279 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 569 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x43ab…5e64backed Yes	0c	100,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	35,823$1,877 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,876.57	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	3c	24,957$682 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$681.53	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	7c	24,442$1,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,799.98	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	23,866$1,142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,142.4	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	6c	23,259$1,506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,506.42	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	22,905$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.6	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	10c	20,923$2,118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,118.31	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes	6c	20,378$1,269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,269.44	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	0c	20,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22d8…682abacked Yes	0c	17,322$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c5c…ef81backed Yes	0c	15,760$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.76	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	9c	15,630$1,430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,430.27	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed Yes	4c	14,088$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$531.39	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	4c	13,990$628 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$627.79	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	1c	12,986$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.39	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	7c	12,981$862 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$862.35	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	1c	12,273$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.63	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6db6…5001backed Yes	8c	12,260$1,025 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,025.35	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+165.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	3c	12,092$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.55	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	2c	12,000$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.5	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	6c	10,708$690 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$689.57	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	7c	10,655$759 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$759.34	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes	4c	10,408$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.29	93	7.5%7 W · 86 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	3c	10,212$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.46	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	8c	10,000$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	10c	9,275$912 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$911.62	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	5c	9,262$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495.44	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	5c	9,134$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451.41	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	10c	9,072$862 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$862.28	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes	10c	8,791$920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$920	259	44.4%115 W · 144 L	+10.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	2c	8,320$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.2	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes	1c	8,177$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.89	43	14%6 W · 37 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	0c	8,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	3c	7,530$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.22	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5a…68fdbacked Yes	18c	7,361$1,327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,326.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	8c	6,658$546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$545.55	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Yes	2c	6,517$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.97	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x036c…e41dbacked Yes	2c	6,250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.8wins	+0.20per pick	13cpaid	+207%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	6,100$718 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$718.48	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	6,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	1c	5,958$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.58	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	5,847$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.41	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7266…34bfbacked Yes	6c	5,663$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.81	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	6c	5,502$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.63	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51f3…7e7fbacked Yes	9c	5,353$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.59	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8848…b9e2backed Yes	0c	5,228$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	2c	5,215$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.26	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	7c	5,135$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.9	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	11c	5,082$578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577.69	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5286…025cbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	50	8%4 W · 46 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	5,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes	6c	4,844$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.96	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	5c	4,768$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.5	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb831…f31cbacked Yes	5c	4,763$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.72	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	4,670$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.53	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	9c	4,641$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.11	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cc9…1938backed Yes	10c	4,590$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	5c	4,580$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.41	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	5c	4,579$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.64	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	4c	4,536$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.06	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	5c	4,517$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.93	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	11c	4,358$488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$488.01	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	7c	4,350$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.13	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes	8c	4,296$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330	85	27.1%23 W · 62 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	4c	4,290$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.86	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	5c	4,284$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.26	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20fe…7968backed Yes	8c	4,145$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.63	88	19.3%17 W · 71 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	12c	4,000$496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	6c	4,000$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8d1…2206backed Yes	8c	3,998$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.99	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	3,969$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.91	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3aaa…c18dbacked Yes	2c	3,900$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.8	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+219.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	6c	3,899$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.94	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	15c	3,601$536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$535.97	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f91…0689backed Yes	4c	3,600$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab78…e3afbacked Yes	2c	3,548$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.05	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	8c	3,479$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.97	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	5c	3,416$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.24	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	3,400$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.05	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	13c	3,290$437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$437.14	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a73…4ffcbacked Yes	1c	3,129$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.09	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcce6…77d1backed Yes	9c	3,089$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.46	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24ae…a08ebacked Yes	15c	3,062$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	9c	2,983$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.48	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	7c	2,969$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.98	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	4c	2,957$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.47	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	4c	2,953$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.08	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	7c	2,855$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.63	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	6c	2,809$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.07	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	9c	2,807$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.05	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	4c	2,798$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.49	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	7c	2,777$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.54	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	5c	2,776$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.18	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x78cf…6481backed Yes	6c	2,700$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.69	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	7cpaid	+212.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3285…019cbacked Yes	8c	2,672$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	15cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x00e0…8a94backed Yes	16c	2,582$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.1	37	64.9%24 W · 13 L	+6.5wins	+0.18per pick	47cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	9c	2,571$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	12c	2,566$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.52	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event