Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7d10df2ef151fd7d5d9f66fe2694b13f9106acc7b764804d0ac37f668870f43

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 16, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,109,195
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $676,281

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,109,195 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 478 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	35,353$1,067 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,067.04	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes	4c	25,697$1,010 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,009.66	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	+139.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	11c	23,650$2,562 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,562.15	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	18,301$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	15c	18,083$2,685 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,685.13	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	6c	10,408$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$582.19	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	6c	10,132$607 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$606.64	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	8c	9,829$820 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$819.85	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…2beabacked Yes	10c	9,393$922 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$922.21	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	9,163$1,221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,221.04	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	4c	9,113$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.16	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	5c	8,032$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$427.78	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	6,701$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.08	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	6,012$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.23	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	8c	6,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	12c	5,846$681 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$680.93	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	6c	5,606$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.83	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b3…25babacked Yes	9c	5,421$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.82	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	7c	5,346$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.45	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	6c	5,076$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.65	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	4c	5,047$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.13	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	8c	4,192$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.82	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	5c	4,000$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	3,996$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.75	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	7c	3,990$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.31	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	11c	3,930$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$443.33	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	8c	3,848$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.99	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d2a…9170backed Yes	17c	3,768$641 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$640.6	91	8.8%8 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	7c	3,587$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.46	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b27…7bfdbacked Yes	4c	3,483$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.82	44	22.7%10 W · 34 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	3c	3,125$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.47	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	3c	3,115$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.41	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	9c	3,098$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	3,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ebd…95f3backed Yes	14c	3,000$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4422…96f4backed Yes	8c	3,000$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	6c	2,946$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.88	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	5c	2,882$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.06	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	3c	2,836$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	9c	2,835$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.8	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	8c	2,824$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.18	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	9c	2,823$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.67	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	7c	2,802$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.08	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	2,799$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.16	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	6c	2,798$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.11	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	7c	2,779$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.11	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed Yes	5c	2,768$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	56	25%14 W · 42 L	-4.9wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5898…3dd9backed Yes	9c	2,554$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.62	61	11.5%7 W · 54 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-27%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	1c	2,500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	2,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	15c	2,500$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.66	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	16c	2,476$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	8c	2,464$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.57	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	4c	2,452$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.4	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c10…4e76backed Yes	8c	2,437$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.4	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	17cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	13c	2,426$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.34	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	9c	2,363$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.96	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	7c	2,356$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.43	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	10c	2,350$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.74	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e16…1cc2backed Yes	10c	2,319$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	13c	2,297$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.48	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eca…4513backed Yes	9c	2,276$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.05	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-64.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	14c	2,249$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.58	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	2,227$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	6c	2,220$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.77	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	8c	2,141$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.21	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes	4c	2,139$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.2	119	31.1%37 W · 82 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	6c	2,090$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.16	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5957…e94bbacked Yes	8c	2,058$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.64	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes	5c	2,013$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.71	61	18%11 W · 50 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	2,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	10c	2,000$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	97	28.9%28 W · 69 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	9c	2,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcce6…77d1backed Yes	4c	1,978$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.53	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes	10c	1,949$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.9	104	31.7%33 W · 71 L	+7.3wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+125.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51f3…7e7fbacked Yes	12c	1,936$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.26	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	9c	1,884$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.3	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x696e…377cbacked Yes	8c	1,850$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.45per pick	22cpaid	+166.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	6c	1,850$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.2	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0a6…f1dfbacked Yes	13c	1,770$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.55	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes	6c	1,706$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0aea…8951backed Yes	15c	1,702$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.97	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15b5…5122backed Yes	10c	1,653$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	6c	1,652$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.9	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9519…9739backed Yes	12c	1,640$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe201…3f41backed Yes	7c	1,633$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.81	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	17c	1,630$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.12	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	15c	1,600$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes	10c	1,599$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.89	117	30.8%36 W · 81 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	+57.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	8c	1,583$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	3c	1,534$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.5	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes	7c	1,531$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.97	233	21%49 W · 184 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	13c	1,517$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.81	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	17c	1,500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.73	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	3c	1,500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	9c	1,500$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9549…b936backed Yes	4c	1,496$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.38	36	25%9 W · 27 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	4c	1,478$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.48	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event