Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x639dd659a2354b95cdb8657cfb0757520ff1dabccbba24a44c77d1804601b7c1

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 16, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,215,930
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $767,398

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,215,930 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 346 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	61,500$637 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$637.37	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes	1c	33,421$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420.88	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	+139.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2c0…c100backed Yes	1c	23,157$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.98	46	19.6%9 W · 37 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	15,580$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.07	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	14c	15,369$2,126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,125.91	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	13c	15,005$1,905 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,904.88	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c10…4e76backed Yes	2c	13,751$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	17cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd86b…1924backed Yes	1c	13,694$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.35	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	10c	12,378$1,255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,255.16	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	0c	12,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.91	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	10,538$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.54	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	6c	9,808$616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$616.41	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	8,005$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.02	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b11…4419backed Yes	1c	7,745$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.11	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes	2c	7,355$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.07	93	7.5%7 W · 86 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	7,018$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.57	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	4c	6,823$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.66	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0431…fcb4backed Yes	0c	6,258$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.77	25	0%0 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	8c	6,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	5,801$746 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$746.15	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	5,763$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.7	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42b3…25babacked Yes	7c	5,633$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.48	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed Yes	1c	5,626$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+40.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0049…3a9abacked Yes	1c	5,478$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.66	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ce4…fe6ebacked Yes	1c	5,199$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.19	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	5,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf09b…9236backed Yes	1c	4,989$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.09	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1acd…c664backed Yes	1c	4,823$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.57	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-88.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	5c	4,690$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.93	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	5c	4,577$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.27	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ae…a08ebacked Yes	2c	4,555$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes	1c	4,319$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.53	149	23.5%35 W · 114 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	1c	4,250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	5c	4,200$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.87	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	4,110$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.22	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	4,084$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.62	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eca…4513backed Yes	1c	4,011$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-64.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	4,000$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	3,969$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.51	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	0c	3,957$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.87	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4c4…fc86backed Yes	1c	3,889$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	9c	3,717$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.66	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	3,539$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.81	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	9c	3,528$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.18	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	4c	3,523$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.6	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	7c	3,394$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	2c	3,317$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.42	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	11c	3,296$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.69	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	6c	3,119$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.09	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	7c	3,000$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ebd…95f3backed Yes	16c	3,000$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.99	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	9c	2,953$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.59	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5660…27e6backed Yes	1c	2,940$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00d6…5a62backed Yes	2c	2,854$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.63	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	6c	2,794$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	2,780$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.8	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	12c	2,771$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	6c	2,703$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.27	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	2c	2,588$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.63	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	7c	2,553$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.46	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	3c	2,549$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.27	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51f3…7e7fbacked Yes	10c	2,500$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.2	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	7c	2,461$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	6c	2,426$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.68	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	2,372$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.29	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a3…351ebacked Yes	1c	2,336$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	1c	2,291$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.25	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c07…aeb0backed Yes	1c	2,279$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.25	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	1c	2,200$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.96	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	2,170$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.02	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bad…4c75backed Yes	1c	2,143$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	6c	2,108$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.6	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd94…52e7backed Yes	1c	2,064$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.23	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	1c	2,059$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.97	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	61	18%11 W · 50 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe9…b611backed Yes	9c	2,000$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-55%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes	3c	2,000$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	46	6.5%3 W · 43 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	9c	2,000$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.5	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	2,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	9c	2,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes	10c	1,964$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.84	90	12.2%11 W · 79 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-42%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	3c	1,924$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.72	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xccf0…e859backed Yes	2c	1,876$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.34	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c5c…ef81backed Yes	1c	1,821$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.88	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e7…ab94backed Yes	1c	1,801$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes	3c	1,790$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.12	285	26.7%76 W · 209 L	-11.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes	1c	1,774$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	8c	1,757$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.68	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5898…3dd9backed Yes	8c	1,708$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.52	61	11.5%7 W · 54 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-27%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc0a6…f1dfbacked Yes	14c	1,650$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.65	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…075ebacked Yes	4c	1,639$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.8	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	6c	1,603$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.13	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	10c	1,600$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.6	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	15c	1,589$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.44	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc579…21cdbacked Yes	9c	1,578$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.57	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	13c	1,559$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.1	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	16c	1,559$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.23	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event