Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62827ae35ad8b369413f5b9e8bd16110d6c3ed18e1a3bcb5f27da92a319b4357

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $868,832
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $509,168

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $868,832 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 239 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes	1c	20,405$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.03	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	+139.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	6c	20,330$1,282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,281.73	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	19,800$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	17,000$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	12c	15,932$1,931 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,931.15	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	12,029$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.86	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	11,556$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.6	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	10,817$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.43	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa29b…5ce7backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	9,168$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.5	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	8c	8,982$718 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$718.24	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	3c	6,449$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.34	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	6,220$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.61	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b3…25babacked Yes	4c	6,102$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.69	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	5c	5,715$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.76	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	4,839$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.75	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	4,699$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.42	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	6c	4,607$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	8c	4,464$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.14	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	9c	4,464$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.08	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	5c	4,338$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.83	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	6c	3,969$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.83	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	7c	3,774$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.5	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	3c	3,523$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.1	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0fe9…b611backed Yes	4c	3,515$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.77	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-55%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	5c	3,505$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.25	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes	1c	3,460$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	218	27.1%59 W · 159 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-27%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	12c	3,405$406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406.06	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	3,313$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.25	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	3,117$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.04	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	9c	3,030$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.89	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	3,020$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.71	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	2c	3,011$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.81	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	4c	2,999$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.37	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	2,966$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.46	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	2,897$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.76	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	2,800$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	8c	2,520$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.62	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	8c	2,438$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.04	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	8c	2,400$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b27…7bfdbacked Yes	4c	2,367$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.86	44	22.7%10 W · 34 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	2,333$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.57	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	10c	2,300$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.21	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4bfe…b127backed Yes	0c	2,280$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	99	25.3%25 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	7c	2,166$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.05	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes	5c	2,102$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	61	18%11 W · 50 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc9…9229backed Yes	7c	2,057$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.99	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5199…4d5fbacked Yes	1c	2,022$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.9	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc579…21cdbacked Yes	4c	2,000$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.81	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	1c	2,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	9c	1,965$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.19	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbebb…28b8backed Yes	6c	1,960$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.23	67	22.4%15 W · 52 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x462e…285fbacked Yes	1c	1,812$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5129…add5backed Yes	2c	1,800$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	6c	1,799$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.8	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	6c	1,615$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.97	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	5c	1,593$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.05	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	12c	1,520$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.61	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	6c	1,500$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51f3…7e7fbacked Yes	14c	1,500$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.1	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfed0…cc4abacked Yes	3c	1,445$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.53	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	+2.5wins	+0.07per pick	19cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	8c	1,376$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.29	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	4c	1,366$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	1,343$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.36	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	15c	1,326$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	1,304$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.27	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes	10c	1,226$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.46	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	2c	1,200$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda1d…6192backed Yes	17c	1,196$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	-5.1wins	-0.16per pick	35cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	7c	1,172$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.17	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x915b…2729backed Yes	4c	1,156$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.86	122	18.9%23 W · 99 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ca9…1f64backed Yes	4c	1,111$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.5	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5898…3dd9backed Yes	8c	1,109$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.24	61	11.5%7 W · 54 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-27%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	10c	1,105$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.68	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc77a…8546backed Yes	2c	1,100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.1	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+3.4wins	+0.13per pick	10cpaid	+130.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	3c	1,094$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5957…e94bbacked Yes	8c	1,078$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.68	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	7c	1,078$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3382…4b67backed Yes	8c	1,070$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.65	51	7.8%4 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	16c	1,047$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.48	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1eaa…f662backed Yes	3c	1,044$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+72%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	2c	1,039$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.16	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa251…92b7backed Yes	1c	1,033$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.67	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c1c…be29backed Yes	15c	1,018$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	13c	1,011$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.98	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	5c	1,008$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.1	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.9	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes	9c	1,000$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.86	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	8c	999.97$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	3c	991.46$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.36	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe552…54a2backed Yes	11c	917.26$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22b5…399bbacked Yes	2c	877.88$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes	4c	876.69$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.82	99	21.2%21 W · 78 L	+8.0wins	+0.08per pick	13cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes	13c	865.69$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.99	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	15c	859.96$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.39	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	6c	834.4$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.28	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c07…570dbacked Yes	8c	800$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.42	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event