Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe55596f3bc2049f2dac5dc17c5b87412f94e3e9c58cf95ea702acb2247973daa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $645,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $456,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $645,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 41,748$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.16 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 6c | 30,535$1,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,687.83 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 10c | 11,853$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.55 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 10,997$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.88 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 9,773$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.58 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…25babacked Yes | 1c | 8,189$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 5c | 7,750$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.74 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 7,214$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.88 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes | 7c | 6,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 480 | 6.9%33 W · 447 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes | 6c | 4,982$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.32 | 173 | 22.5%39 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 4,685$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.4 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,503$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 4,493$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.44 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 4,466$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 4,264$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.74 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes | 8c | 4,043$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.53 | 95 | 5.3%5 W · 90 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 3,444$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.35 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,332$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…4466backed Yes | 7c | 3,225$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 423 | 12.5%53 W · 370 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…b611backed Yes | 2c | 3,200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 4c | 3,186$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.6 | 84 | 9.5%8 W · 76 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebd…95f3backed Yes | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13cf…a8b2backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…ae22backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6549…eb80backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 96 | 11.5%11 W · 85 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…0f89backed Yes | 6c | 2,976$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.57 | 79 | 16.5%13 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 2,846$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.22 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…2700backed Yes | 6c | 2,800$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 67 | 6%4 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee0…b488backed Yes | 2c | 2,559$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 5c | 2,510$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.33 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,436$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.24 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,203$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d3…17adbacked Yes | 9c | 2,195$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes | 4c | 2,111$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 67 | 6%4 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 6c | 2,105$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.87 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb8…9bb7backed Yes | 1c | 2,042$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…6824backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce72…01f2backed Yes | 1c | 1,993$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…e985backed Yes | 5c | 1,990$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…a693backed Yes | 1c | 1,925$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 122 | 4.9%6 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +213.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8770…a38fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,907$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 1,903$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.56 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc4…a9c3backed Yes | 1c | 1,824$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc9…9229backed Yes | 6c | 1,777$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.94 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 1,696$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 279 | 4.7%13 W · 266 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a9…1e50backed Yes | 10c | 1,663$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +49%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…0775backed Yes | 2c | 1,641$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed Yes | 9c | 1,582$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 69 | 10.1%7 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…98efbacked Yes | 3c | 1,580$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 9c | 1,538$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.96 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f3…0a98backed Yes | 4c | 1,484$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 124 | 16.1%20 W · 104 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 1,427$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.64 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fa…c57fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,407$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.68 | 158 | 12%19 W · 139 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 1,397$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 261 | 5.4%14 W · 247 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6de…12f7backed Yes | 1c | 1,385$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,366$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.24 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 296 | 10.5%31 W · 265 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…2cd8backed Yes | 15c | 1,246$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.41 | 261 | 13.8%36 W · 225 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…8f14backed Yes | 12c | 1,214$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.63 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 7c | 1,188$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x915b…2729backed Yes | 3c | 1,183$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 122 | 18.9%23 W · 99 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x552c…be63backed Yes | 2c | 1,151$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 143 | 14%20 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d69…f8eebacked Yes | 2c | 1,132$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 5c | 1,122$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 127 | 12.6%16 W · 111 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…1f64backed Yes | 3c | 1,109$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,074$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 18%24 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…8d31backed Yes | 1c | 1,065$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 9c | 1,060$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed3…0527backed Yes | 1c | 1,057$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes | 5c | 1,035$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 12.2%11 W · 79 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 5c | 1,016$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 17c | 1,007$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5957…e94bbacked Yes | 7c | 999.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…1354backed Yes | 1c | 958$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…d18cbacked Yes | 3c | 919.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54c0…a338backed Yes | 2c | 906$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 364 | 4.7%17 W · 347 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes | 9c | 817.75$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 3c | 815.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2827backed Yes | 13c | 800$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…bb19backed Yes | 9c | 799.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 103 | 8.7%9 W · 94 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 3c | 788.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…395bbacked Yes | 2c | 786.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 13c | 779.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…eeb2backed Yes | 5c | 759.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 133 | 13.5%18 W · 115 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…63e6backed Yes | 13c | 756.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…1481backed Yes | 3c | 750$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 172 | 8.7%15 W · 157 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…b06dbacked Yes | 3c | 745.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes | 15c | 704.2$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.08 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 5c | 699.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…4b67backed Yes | 7c | 693.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 51 | 7.8%4 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace1…923bbacked Yes | 5c | 691.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7a…3b91backed Yes | 10c | 680.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccb…05a2backed Yes | 2c | 669.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbebb…28b8backed Yes | 10c | 641.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 10c | 639.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 15c | 616.95$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 176 | 5.1%9 W · 167 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.