Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb93528c16938552872f79ec03b736ab43d01cfbedb4aa80d780070f7593d3338

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 16, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,984,384
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,174,897

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,984,384 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 530 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x22d8…682abacked Yes	0c	78,335$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd86b…1924backed Yes	2c	55,180$936 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$935.52	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	51,545$581 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.23	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	42,193$1,026 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,025.73	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	11c	40,346$4,408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,407.83	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	4c	34,217$1,199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,199.04	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	13c	34,028$4,342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,342.2	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	8c	33,921$2,680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,680.23	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	8c	31,715$2,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,470.43	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17fe…964cbacked Yes	2c	28,724$603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$603.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5199…4d5fbacked Yes	0c	26,825$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.78	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	7c	20,921$1,388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,387.83	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	1c	19,890$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.56	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	18,877$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.88	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	12c	17,807$2,128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,128.04	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	5c	17,454$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900.13	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	14,411$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.94	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	2c	14,301$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.89	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	0c	13,597$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.92	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	1c	12,985$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.99	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	1c	12,558$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.04	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	13c	11,929$1,601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,600.78	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa90…b224backed Yes	1c	11,887$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.9	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	11,886$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.89	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed Yes	2c	11,573$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.59	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	11,570$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.18	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcce6…77d1backed Yes	4c	11,245$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.93	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1c7…620ebacked Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24ae…a08ebacked Yes	2c	10,907$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	1c	10,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa100…bbacbacked Yes	5c	9,591$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.28	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.29per pick	5cpaid	+370.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb6a…8777backed Yes	0c	8,628$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	7c	8,578$619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$619.28	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	8,500$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	8,099$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.6	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	7,410$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.8	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	6,748$967 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$967.21	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x036c…e41dbacked Yes	2c	6,675$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.12	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.8wins	+0.20per pick	13cpaid	+207%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	3c	6,666$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.65	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	6,417$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.14	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7b0…2554backed Yes	0c	5,900$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.9	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.15per pick	25cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	8c	5,899$464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.49	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	8c	5,792$456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456.01	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31e3…3a62backed Yes	4c	5,792$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.88	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbebb…28b8backed Yes	2c	5,688$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.07	67	22.4%15 W · 52 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	3c	5,660$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.31	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bad…4c75backed Yes	1c	5,527$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	2c	5,202$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.99	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	3c	5,154$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.63	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6de…12f7backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	2c	5,000$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	4c	5,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	5c	4,982$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.63	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	7c	4,843$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.58	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes	2c	4,687$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	103	35.9%37 W · 66 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+108%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	4,680$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.38	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	5c	4,658$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.96	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	2c	4,643$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.13	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	12c	4,438$534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533.65	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8733…9814backed Yes	1c	4,386$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	34	5.9%2 W · 32 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	3c	4,351$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.15	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	12c	4,346$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520.56	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	1c	4,290$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.15	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	4c	4,217$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.35	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b1…188ebacked Yes	3c	4,200$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	6c	4,189$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.61	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	4,181$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.69	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x665b…73babacked No	68c	4,150$2,836 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,313.5	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	21c	4,090$856 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$856.22	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	4c	4,003$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.24	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	4,000$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	42c	4,000$1,690 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,690	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Yes	1c	3,498$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.98	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf815…ca34backed Yes	48c	3,466$1,659 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,658.71	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.09per pick	18cpaid	+229.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	5c	3,265$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b53…5c6cbacked Yes	1c	3,158$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-77.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes	2c	3,136$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes	4c	3,038$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	131	16.8%22 W · 109 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+57.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1143…1a85backed Yes	2c	3,031$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.29	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	8cpaid	+50.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes	2c	3,000$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.17	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	2c	3,000$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.44	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4cf1…ee87backed Yes	3c	2,900$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.39	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	5c	2,900$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.25	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	3c	2,815$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.67	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	12c	2,797$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.98	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe410…8213backed Yes	1c	2,788$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	7c	2,788$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.14	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes	13c	2,741$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.38	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	6c	2,719$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.73	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes	23c	2,681$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624.63	91	17.6%16 W · 75 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	6c	2,666$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.29	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	4c	2,642$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.04	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	19c	2,640$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497.23	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	3c	2,588$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.3	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	4c	2,525$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf703…9f55backed Yes	3c	2,444$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.63	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	2c	2,407$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.67	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	6c	2,300$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.8	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed Yes	45c	2,221$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event