AI · resolved market
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe43023b51dda82de4f5bb7fc4ec0079c63a99b07248c972b96da1fee1e45dc68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $212,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $244,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 16c | 10,136$1,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e6…30a2backed Yes | 15c | 7,027$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 18c | 5,805$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.76 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 18c | 4,570$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.63 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 8c | 4,325$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.97 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed Yes | 16c | 4,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 19c | 3,038$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.24 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5228…6c8ebacked Yes | 23c | 3,007$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Yes | 16c | 2,987$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 13c | 2,294$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.3 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc2…d2afbacked Yes | 30c | 2,281$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,220$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,027$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.96 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed Yes | 6c | 1,671$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 73c | 1,658$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.43 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 13c | 1,600$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 70c | 1,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,347$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c29…7570backed Yes | 20c | 1,228$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 5c | 1,200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,192$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.66 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,180$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7a…d37ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,160$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 74c | 1,103$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.2 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc8…b483backed Yes | 47c | 1,080$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dfbebacked Yes | 14c | 1,054$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.37 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…f788backed Yes | 13c | 1,028$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5f…e63cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,004$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…1eebbacked Yes | 19c | 999.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 7c | 984.87$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked Yes | 15c | 943.66$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked Yes | 16c | 909.74$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 24c | 891.04$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…9a45backed Yes | 7c | 806.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 32c | 790.05$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.4wins | -0.40per pick | 49cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 16c | 776.97$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.43 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…5e23backed Yes | 23c | 766.1$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.19 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +72%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d51…6f1fbacked No | 79c | 759.79$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 5c | 753.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 16c | 749.98$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 15c | 700$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -7.2wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f08…ad05backed Yes | 19c | 681.17$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes | 15c | 670$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 16c | 669.07$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab58…b07dbacked No | 78c | 652.89$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e32…8a33backed Yes | 14c | 648.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…8a19backed Yes | 16c | 626.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…1e2abacked Yes | 25c | 614$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…cacdbacked Yes | 3c | 601.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…562ebacked Yes | 10c | 595.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes | 42c | 589.44$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5111backed Yes | 22c | 570.53$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 19c | 553.42$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 17c | 516.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 48c | 498.85$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.22 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 17c | 470.63$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafe6…38fbbacked Yes | 17c | 460.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a7…1eedbacked Yes | 17c | 450.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 12c | 450$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x985a…7edfbacked Yes | 23c | 440.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb796…58a8backed Yes | 40c | 418.04$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed Yes | 22c | 404.03$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.24 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed No | 77c | 399.99$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a40…f3dbbacked Yes | 33c | 395.3$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e3…f62bbacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…be50backed Yes | 34c | 384.28$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b3…bd27backed Yes | 9c | 380$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…638abacked Yes | 21c | 352.21$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…cd63backed No | 74c | 344.62$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ee…c175backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 56c | 326.63$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f52…6f28backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 17c | 300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d22…ea55backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 20c | 299.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38cf…7148backed Yes | 16c | 299.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 26c | 297.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…b348backed No | 79c | 292.58$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 77c | 283.29$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 78c | 275$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes | 25c | 272.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 6c | 265$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes | 5c | 259.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 17c | 258.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6273…95c8backed Yes | 17c | 250$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +73%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf0…fd08backed Yes | 16c | 249.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ae…85d1backed Yes | 13c | 244.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 16c | 239.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…e351backed Yes | 17c | 236.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a4…5b91backed Yes | 12c | 234.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…0ea0backed Yes | 14c | 225.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 23c | 222.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?this page
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30?Yes won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?No won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?Yes won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 15?Yes won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.