TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$212,971
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$244,489

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,971 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes16c10,136$1,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.671136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e6…30a2backed Yes15c7,027$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes18c5,805$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.762944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes18c4,570$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.631931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes8c4,325$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.979333.3%31 W · 62 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8365…e9a6backed Yes16c4,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes19c3,038$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.243514.3%5 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-81%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5228…6c8ebacked Yes23c3,007$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes16c3,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48010426.9%28 W · 76 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x706c…7752backed Yes16c2,987$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes13c2,294$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.32733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc2…d2afbacked Yes30c2,281$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.2140%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c2,220$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.126312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes10c2,027$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.962913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-74.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes12c2,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01ad…9e91backed Yes6c1,671$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.111050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No73c1,658$1,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.436100%6 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+111.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes13c1,600$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.993540%14 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No70c1,500$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4502040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c1,347$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6921713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c29…7570backed Yes20c1,228$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.01862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick36cpaid+95.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes5c1,200$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.25547.3%26 W · 29 L+7.8wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+23.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes10c1,192$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.666136.1%22 W · 39 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes5c1,180$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.771631.3%5 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7a…d37ebacked Yes8c1,160$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.391216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-67.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No74c1,103$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.27540%30 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3fc8…b483backed Yes47c1,080$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb83b…dfbebacked Yes14c1,054$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.373040%12 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+44.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d6d…f788backed Yes13c1,028$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4a5f…e63cbacked Yes21c1,004$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502454.2%13 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+59.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfa31…1eebbacked Yes19c999.99$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes7c984.87$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.157946.8%37 W · 42 L+10.0wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+17.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc043…eb1bbacked Yes15c943.66$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked Yes16c909.74$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.561050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes24c891.04$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.77540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf35…9a45backed Yes7c806.41$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.372913.8%4 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-42.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Yes32c790.05$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250119.1%1 W · 10 L-4.4wins-0.40per pick49cpaid-88.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes16c776.97$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.435448.1%26 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xed0c…5e23backed Yes23c766.1$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.19683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+72%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d51…6f1fbacked No79c759.79$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes5c753.17$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-78.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b13…5957backed Yes16c749.98$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.5825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-60.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes15c700$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1073429.4%10 W · 24 L-7.2wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-53.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x1f08…ad05backed Yes19c681.17$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes15c670$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5434.7%2 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes16c669.07$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.748543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab58…b07dbacked No78c652.89$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.36616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-78.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e32…8a33backed Yes14c648.96$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.561735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2a0…8a19backed Yes16c626.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Yes25c614$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…cacdbacked Yes3c601.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a32…562ebacked Yes10c595.79$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes42c589.44$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d29…5111backed Yes22c570.53$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes19c553.42$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.98520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-63.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc09…9024backed Yes17c516.45$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.16771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+38.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No48c498.85$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.223630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes17c470.63$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2414355.2%79 W · 64 L+16.6wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+24.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xafe6…38fbbacked Yes17c460.04$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.48540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3a7…1eedbacked Yes17c450.37$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes12c450$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547132.4%23 W · 48 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+49.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x985a…7edfbacked Yes23c440.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb796…58a8backed Yes40c418.04$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.48666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc288…3480backed Yes22c404.03$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.241833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes14c400$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c55…dbb9backed No77c399.99$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942552%13 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a40…f3dbbacked Yes33c395.3$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87e3…f62bbacked Yes26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d9…be50backed Yes34c384.28$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b3…bd27backed Yes9c380$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb5…638abacked Yes21c352.21$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34e6…cd63backed No74c344.62$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4ee…c175backed Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8257…da02backed No56c326.63$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.12475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+88.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed Yes18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f52…6f28backed Yes13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+60.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes17c300$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503215.6%5 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d22…ea55backed No75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+64.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77fd…b6c8backed Yes17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce60…6705backed Yes20c299.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604837.5%18 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38cf…7148backed Yes16c299.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481266.7%8 W · 4 L+4.6wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+138.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes26c297.98$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.042138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x467c…b348backed No79c292.58$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.291850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed No77c283.29$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.071241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick57cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No78c275$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes25c272.45$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.35140%0 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes6c265$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.94151.2%21 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes5c259.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.94714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-75.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes17c258.05$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.515950.8%30 W · 29 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6273…95c8backed Yes17c250$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.51060%6 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+73%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdaf0…fd08backed Yes16c249.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.99560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+39.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5ae…85d1backed Yes13c244.5$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked Yes16c239.91$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.793941%16 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x7eb3…e351backed Yes17c236.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09a4…5b91backed Yes12c234.26$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe64d…0ea0backed Yes14c225.74$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes23c222.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50323.1%1 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick15cpaid-88.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.