AI · resolved market
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x459d1caa7df2c8c6438f7a487c7a32032cbc25718fa979519c1b666d5043378c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0f7…5d56backed No | 0c | 48,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 23c | 1,243$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.11 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 40c | 1,140$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.47 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,056$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.32 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 22c | 1,033$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.7 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Yes | 60c | 1,000$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 9c | 977.82$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cb…6e8fbacked No | 78c | 822.73$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 28c | 799.2$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.19 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed Yes | 23c | 782$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.14 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked No | 77c | 732$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 77c | 506$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.62 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…0c07backed No | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 62cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed No | 77c | 492$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed No | 72c | 388$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.36 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked No | 78c | 386$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.93 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…3037backed No | 72c | 380$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70e7…4a70backed No | 72c | 288$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked No | 77c | 221$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.17 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 55c | 215.53$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.06 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 70c | 204.6$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…b0c1backed No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 50cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…d72dbacked Yes | 28c | 177.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…3895backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.39per pick | 39cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 70c | 130$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 77c | 69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 65c | 65.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 20c | 53.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 79c | 50.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 47c | 37.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1e…0a48backed No | 62c | 22.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 15?this page
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30?Yes won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?No won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?Yes won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?No won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.