AI · resolved market
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefe6fe9417ca4fa94e654d6ccae67b4d7241c7a7c9ab02722d597ffbe487ba19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 0c | 32,705$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 46c | 1,881$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.65 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes | 66c | 1,782$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.11 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed Yes | 48c | 1,400$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 31c | 1,245$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.05 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed Yes | 48c | 1,084$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.68 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed No | 55c | 1,080$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 55c | 1,000$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.07 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed Yes | 47c | 908$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 45c | 834$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.7 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked No | 55c | 794$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.7 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1697…4cf6backed Yes | 48c | 761$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed No | 53c | 754$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.03 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed Yes | 42c | 705$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.9 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed No | 45c | 700$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed No | 52c | 697$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.44 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f52…6f28backed Yes | 63c | 685.82$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…3e46backed Yes | 48c | 634$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…2cdbbacked No | 53c | 631$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 46c | 622$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.88 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed No | 52c | 587$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.24 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 25c | 574.95$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.85 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked No | 52c | 571$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.92 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbd…17c9backed No | 52c | 567$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked No | 57c | 559$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.63 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed Yes | 43c | 559$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.63 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 42cpaid | +199.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 58c | 514$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 47c | 505$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…99aebacked No | 52c | 483$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 16c | 473.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 53c | 466$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.98 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked No | 53c | 453$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.09 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked No | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd6…019dbacked No | 53c | 386$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…7f19backed Yes | 47c | 386$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.58 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 57c | 351$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.07 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 43c | 351$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.07 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes | 46c | 325$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…70a2backed No | 52c | 317$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 12c | 313.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac7…0757backed No | 49c | 304.8$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…c7b9backed No | 53c | 299$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…644ebacked Yes | 47c | 298$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…0451backed No | 54c | 281$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…d913backed Yes | 47c | 277$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed No | 53c | 276$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed No | 53c | 276$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 56c | 271$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.76 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked Yes | 48c | 259$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.68 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed No | 53c | 252$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.56 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…24efbacked Yes | 47c | 252$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 62c | 209.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…59d6backed No | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…3ceabacked No | 58c | 191$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…b0c1backed No | 37c | 150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 50cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed Yes | 47c | 149$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.97 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 71c | 142.23$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 78c | 135.36$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 31c | 108.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d950backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x26d1…94b0backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef1…4cccbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 70c | 85.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 50c | 64.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked No | 52c | 64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…66d5backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…0c07backed No | 47c | 53.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 62cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed No | 52c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 43.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…cacebacked No | 53c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…eb11backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23eb…c516backed No | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 48c | 26.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1e…0a48backed No | 48c | 22.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df3…9d6bbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30?this page
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?No won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?Yes won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?No won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 15?Yes won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.