Middle East · resolved market
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04a04ae1e67d0d5bf5fbd602953f18870ce22711e851a0bcc3413b935c8ed26a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 353 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 25c | 7,242$1,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,841.38 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…d9d1backed Yes | 10c | 6,857$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed No | 64c | 5,269$3,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,916.96 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 5,063$3,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.71 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c87…fce0backed Yes | 12c | 3,691$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.58 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 56c | 3,655$2,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 38c | 3,003$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.15 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 27c | 2,691$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.43 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked No | 71c | 2,322$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.59 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…9b78backed Yes | 37c | 2,144$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2e…edbdbacked Yes | 39c | 2,055$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.16 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 1,956$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.32 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80df…3407backed No | 64c | 1,943$1,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 34c | 1,910$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.89 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 29c | 1,881$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.09 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 25c | 1,825$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.3 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 28c | 1,821$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.25 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce2…e868backed No | 66c | 1,768$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +110%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…cf22backed Yes | 41c | 1,631$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.22 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 45cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed No | 68c | 1,396$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.82 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…d81cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,378$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 68c | 1,319$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.48 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 34c | 1,288$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.03 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…4665backed Yes | 11c | 1,200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 60c | 1,112$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.1 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x719b…c995backed No | 59c | 1,071$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.81 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6904…0f11backed Yes | 58c | 1,064$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes | 39c | 1,028$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 27c | 1,023$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.24 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 28c | 979.56$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.02 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 37c | 949.08$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.87 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 899.84$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.52 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 41c | 890.26$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.75 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 39c | 847.31$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.3 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 59c | 839.69$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.93 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…2da6backed No | 60c | 836.96$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 71c | 821.99$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.54 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…0e46backed No | 68c | 777.56$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.06 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 749.88$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes | 46c | 726.93$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.24 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +187.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…8c86backed Yes | 33c | 710.36$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb5…66a9backed Yes | 44c | 699.64$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3398…e348backed Yes | 31c | 665.17$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Yes | 50c | 653.7$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.28 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 54c | 637$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.02 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47cc…5668backed Yes | 5c | 618$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 33cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd58…9542backed Yes | 37c | 616.44$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.76 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 39c | 601.97$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.28 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 33c | 577.37$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.72 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked No | 68c | 559.59$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.61 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 71c | 551.8$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.33 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 7c | 548.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5afd…7e8dbacked Yes | 37c | 545.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…3c8ebacked Yes | 12c | 544$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…65d8backed No | 71c | 539.46$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.46 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…8d44backed Yes | 38c | 514.52$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 508.27$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.41 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 8c | 504.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…7d2dbacked Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…03c7backed Yes | 40c | 489.78$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.66 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 22c | 483.66$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.04 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 71c | 478$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.62 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…c675backed Yes | 42c | 473.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 464.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9717…ddf3backed Yes | 39c | 463.73$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.32 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x031c…4fcabacked No | 68c | 449.99$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 29c | 445$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.05 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 58c | 430.99$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.78 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 71c | 419.9$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.9 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c9…e290backed Yes | 46c | 418.72$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 78c | 411.39$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.88 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…3736backed Yes | 37c | 410$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +1,042.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 43c | 407.24$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.96 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2152…c3f9backed Yes | 12c | 404.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44eb…1bd3backed No | 70c | 402.15$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c9…d319backed No | 75c | 400.09$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.09 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 39c | 399.99$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed No | 59c | 399.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 28c | 399.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…74febacked Yes | 26c | 384.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…f5adbacked No | 52c | 383.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 371.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4486…6f0bbacked Yes | 57c | 370.59$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeae…26adbacked No | 70c | 358.4$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b33…957cbacked Yes | 11c | 354.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 15c | 350$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…7d7ebacked Yes | 32c | 350$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…cbacbacked Yes | 39c | 347.14$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed5…b661backed No | 58c | 345.29$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +224.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x400e…b2bfbacked No | 67c | 337$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked Yes | 14c | 331$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 70c | 328.05$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.75 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…87b9backed Yes | 31c | 318.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed Yes | 26c | 315$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 38c | 309.51$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.68 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…5f1dbacked Yes | 35c | 308.84$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed No | 72c | 306$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.