TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$159,602
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$156,228

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,602 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 353 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes25c7,242$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,841.3842818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…d9d1backed Yes10c6,857$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.69944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb3…2682backed No64c5,269$3,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,916.967045.7%32 W · 38 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No77c5,063$3,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.7164339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6c87…fce0backed Yes12c3,691$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.581338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No56c3,655$2,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5918749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes38c3,003$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.1536750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9359…4aeebacked Yes27c2,691$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.436622.7%15 W · 51 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked No71c2,322$1,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.596549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36d7…9b78backed Yes37c2,144$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7903951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2e…edbdbacked Yes39c2,055$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.163611.1%4 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes35c1,956$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.3234432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x80df…3407backed No64c1,943$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.951546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-24.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes34c1,910$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.8923525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes29c1,881$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.0956336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes25c1,825$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.314335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes28c1,821$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.2548630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed No66c1,768$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.572100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+110%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x047a…cf22backed Yes41c1,631$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.222924.1%7 W · 22 L-6.0wins-0.21per pick45cpaid-55.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed No68c1,396$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.8217247.7%82 W · 90 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf12…d81cbacked Yes6c1,378$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked No68c1,319$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.4817755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x919e…d915backed Yes34c1,288$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.032931%9 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick25cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cbf…4665backed Yes11c1,200$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1326546.2%30 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No60c1,112$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.138237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x719b…c995backed No59c1,071$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.811172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+18.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6904…0f11backed Yes58c1,064$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes39c1,028$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005026%13 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-44.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes27c1,023$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.2437740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc18f…605abacked Yes28c979.56$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.029920.2%20 W · 79 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes37c949.08$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.8735355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes30c899.84$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.5277636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes41c890.26$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.7542738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes39c847.31$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.36825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No59c839.69$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.935253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x022a…2da6backed No60c836.96$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.961442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No71c821.99$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.5412650.8%64 W · 62 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f8…0e46backed No68c777.56$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.063842.1%16 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes14c749.88$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.491,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes46c726.93$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.244825%12 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+187.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x727e…8c86backed Yes33c710.36$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebb5…66a9backed Yes44c699.64$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3398…e348backed Yes31c665.17$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.141450%7 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Yes50c653.7$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.282020%4 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-70.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No54c637$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.029955.6%55 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x47cc…5668backed Yes5c618$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.38per pick33cpaid+68.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd58…9542backed Yes37c616.44$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.764540%18 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes39c601.97$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.2816651.2%85 W · 81 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes33c577.37$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.7243212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked No68c559.59$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.612075%15 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No71c551.8$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.338058.8%47 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes7c548.07$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4673%2 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5afd…7e8dbacked Yes37c545.9$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ce…3c8ebacked Yes12c544$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.28837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+87.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x153b…65d8backed No71c539.46$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.463554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd507…8d44backed Yes38c514.52$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c508.27$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.4167841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8392…e3a2backed Yes8c504.05$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.314420.8%30 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdadb…7d2dbacked Yes34c500$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d3e…03c7backed Yes40c489.78$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.662429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-41.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes22c483.66$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.042438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked No71c478$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.621450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbdf…c675backed Yes42c473.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c464.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.464195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9717…ddf3backed Yes39c463.73$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.322931%9 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-52%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x031c…4fcabacked No68c449.99$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.5540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes29c445$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.051741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x983c…385dbacked No58c430.99$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.786240.3%25 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No71c419.9$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.94153.7%22 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid+4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23c9…e290backed Yes46c418.72$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f2…e5fabacked No78c411.39$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.889051.1%46 W · 44 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+114.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e60…3736backed Yes37c410$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.71553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+1,042.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No43c407.24$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.9658927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2152…c3f9backed Yes12c404.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44eb…1bd3backed No70c402.15$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91c9…d319backed No75c400.09$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.095463%34 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes39c399.99$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15427047.8%129 W · 141 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0303…fcd1backed No59c399.99$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1654341.9%18 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed Yes28c399.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1127341.1%30 W · 43 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4406…74febacked Yes26c384.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc89d…f5adbacked No52c383.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.441346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-22.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes6c371.49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.36836%5 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4486…6f0bbacked Yes57c370.59$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+156.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeae…26adbacked No70c358.4$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b33…957cbacked Yes11c354.43$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed Yes15c350$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519153.8%49 W · 42 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b86…7d7ebacked Yes32c350$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8643…cbacbacked Yes39c347.14$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbed5…b661backed No58c345.29$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.022100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+224.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x400e…b2bfbacked No67c337$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.39683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7407…19bebacked Yes14c331$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.341833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No70c328.05$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.7522262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1ea6…87b9backed Yes31c318.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002755.6%15 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+79.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe433…1700backed Yes26c315$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.91650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes38c309.51$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.689532.6%31 W · 64 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+57.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b87…5f1dbacked Yes35c308.84$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick30cpaid+138.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ea…a152backed No72c306$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.681947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8720239.1%79 W · 123 L+20.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes6c300$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17694.3%3 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.