AI · resolved market
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5193bf65ea3b92ac5d78c18055390f792c70287731d48e70e1582f752b41eeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $441,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $319,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $441,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c6c…3533backed Yes | 2c | 15,155$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 6c | 13,562$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde2c…d1b3backed Yes | 5c | 13,405$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 2c | 13,322$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 5c | 11,591$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.56 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a3…ab99backed Yes | 1c | 11,239$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 1c | 10,094$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.07 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 4c | 9,837$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.61 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 8,452$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 8,200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb74…0a09backed Yes | 5c | 7,855$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 5,370$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f0…948cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,158$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…9262backed Yes | 5c | 5,092$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.8 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 5,016$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.08 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c87…e955backed Yes | 2c | 4,895$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 2c | 4,272$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…15dabacked Yes | 7c | 4,112$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.62 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 3,999$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.68 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 7c | 3,992$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.42 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,619$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 3,616$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…8f77backed Yes | 8c | 3,568$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.05 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…54e7backed Yes | 4c | 3,290$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.69 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 3,063$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb8…3236backed Yes | 2c | 3,052$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…0fd1backed Yes | 11c | 2,900$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.37 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 1c | 2,810$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 2,782$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,701$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.05 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf59…0a34backed Yes | 8c | 2,648$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,634$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6207…5259backed Yes | 8c | 2,548$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 2,516$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…adeabacked Yes | 7c | 2,191$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 5c | 2,155$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.25 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 2c | 2,134$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c21…9bd9backed Yes | 2c | 2,085$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…a74dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,061$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 1c | 2,012$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +44%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92a9…d3adbacked Yes | 2c | 2,012$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,003$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 23c | 2,000$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…a85ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,977$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,940$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b9…de55backed Yes | 6c | 1,805$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.14 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 2c | 1,751$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 2c | 1,715$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed Yes | 6c | 1,657$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 3c | 1,529$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5b…676fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,506$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e17…0da1backed Yes | 1c | 1,501$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…1f46backed Yes | 3c | 1,497$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c22…b567backed Yes | 1c | 1,493$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…7e30backed Yes | 3c | 1,452$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5b…1edcbacked Yes | 36c | 1,395$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes | 27c | 1,379$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,360$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 13c | 1,342$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,259$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.91 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec3…f154backed Yes | 27c | 1,193$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d67…ad2abacked Yes | 9c | 1,161$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a4…fca5backed Yes | 36c | 1,160$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…d6a0backed Yes | 18c | 1,135$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd641…f7debacked Yes | 8c | 1,134$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -64%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…f66ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,083$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,073$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 10c | 1,043$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x816f…acbcbacked Yes | 20c | 1,021$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0124…2070backed Yes | 9c | 1,011$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ee…cf68backed Yes | 11c | 899.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…3237backed Yes | 4c | 895$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6f…d4aebacked Yes | 11c | 878.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade9…7d7cbacked Yes | 5c | 878$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x925b…640ebacked Yes | 3c | 843.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6c…3407backed Yes | 1c | 842$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…48babacked Yes | 5c | 822.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe1…191abacked No | 80c | 777.43$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Yes | 1c | 739.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked Yes | 8c | 727.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…2cfbbacked Yes | 7c | 719.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 703.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 6c | 700.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…48acbacked Yes | 10c | 699.48$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 2c | 677.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 7c | 627.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed Yes | 14c | 600$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59da…ee69backed Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…8466backed Yes | 11c | 599.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e492backed Yes | 8c | 566.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173d…dc87backed Yes | 6c | 565.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba0…cba6backed Yes | 24c | 537.59$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked Yes | 8c | 531.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 18c | 523$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.71 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x131b…170abacked Yes | 5c | 522$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…f15bbacked Yes | 2c | 520.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 7c | 519.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 7c | 511.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -72%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbd…a9fabacked Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…08e8backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?this page
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Oracle be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.