AI · resolved market
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2989daa542a0bf7c8a2528afac96ad5c9da3f5d33bf4fbeedb268d69dbb0179
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $460,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $332,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $460,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 224 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf083…e3ccbacked Yes | 19c | 21,261$4,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,082.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 7c | 17,208$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.3 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 9c | 16,734$1,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 16,550$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 8c | 11,800$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.08 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 1c | 11,700$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce29…b71bbacked Yes | 13c | 10,815$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…616dbacked Yes | 4c | 10,537$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2c…d1b3backed Yes | 9c | 9,585$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 7c | 7,763$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.13 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x431f…6b89backed Yes | 11c | 6,486$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fb…89cebacked Yes | 14c | 6,253$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f6…d43bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 3c | 4,988$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.31 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…8f77backed Yes | 7c | 4,868$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.25 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 11c | 4,399$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.32 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 15c | 3,968$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.44 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,904$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 10c | 3,900$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.51 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked Yes | 13c | 3,790$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 8c | 3,768$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.75 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 3,231$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.38 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e17…0da1backed Yes | 1c | 3,185$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed39…60dcbacked Yes | 5c | 3,072$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.26 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…799abacked Yes | 11c | 2,958$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c5…9f26backed Yes | 1c | 2,864$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…6bb1backed Yes | 18c | 2,823$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c87…e955backed Yes | 4c | 2,592$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,308$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.28 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…3bd8backed Yes | 4c | 2,096$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…dc4cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,085$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…18e4backed Yes | 3c | 2,070$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…9262backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 12c | 1,861$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.34 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,849$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.67 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,804$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 11c | 1,743$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.43 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,694$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…adbcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,618$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,563$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x525b…8a03backed Yes | 2c | 1,513$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…2cfbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,443$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…0a8cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,414$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…b1fdbacked Yes | 16c | 1,356$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…7301backed Yes | 9c | 1,310$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…9673backed Yes | 1c | 1,226$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 16c | 1,162$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.72 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 1,123$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…e034backed Yes | 27c | 1,104$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 3c | 1,077$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 1,038$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,005$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aaa…d0e0backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b9…de55backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa02…5b9abacked Yes | 3c | 999.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64b…e382backed Yes | 7c | 999.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc03…662bbacked Yes | 10c | 984.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01bf…070dbacked Yes | 12c | 958.36$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x434d…b0e6backed Yes | 2c | 941.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked Yes | 10c | 930.9$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 14c | 887.69$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.39 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdae2…d51fbacked Yes | 5c | 885.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 875.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd641…f7debacked Yes | 10c | 867.44$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.01 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -64%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 2c | 799.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 11c | 780.63$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 16c | 765$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d23…68fbbacked Yes | 2c | 764.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 22c | 762.49$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.26 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…f8c4backed Yes | 13c | 756.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -67%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 3c | 753.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 720$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 14c | 712.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 8c | 700$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -72%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…1c8dbacked Yes | 16c | 699.54$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x887d…634ebacked Yes | 8c | 691.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27af…1d65backed Yes | 3c | 644.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 11c | 641.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…6895backed Yes | 3c | 598.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes | 6c | 597$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…1de2backed Yes | 7c | 587.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…369dbacked Yes | 7c | 541.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed No | 78c | 538$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.97 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…7631backed Yes | 3c | 534.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…5776backed Yes | 7c | 534.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed Yes | 15c | 521.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…c224backed Yes | 19c | 499.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d2…c177backed Yes | 3c | 499.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 7c | 499.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2eb…14eebacked Yes | 16c | 495.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd2…47d1backed Yes | 12c | 467.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…36f6backed Yes | 13c | 453.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…f15bbacked Yes | 10c | 452.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 451.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 10c | 440.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 10c | 438.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Oracle be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.