TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$369,581
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$207,301

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $369,581 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c28,211$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.742003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb74…0a09backed Yes2c19,528$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes1c19,298$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.52244.2%1 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-86.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c12,497$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes1c12,451$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.256123%14 W · 47 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked Yes0c11,635$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.95026%13 W · 37 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick17cpaid+44.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x54fa…0fbcbacked Yes1c10,577$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.3620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes1c10,369$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.86524.6%16 W · 49 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+65.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.02329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3489…5d0ebacked Yes1c8,870$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c8,298$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.61754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c21…9bd9backed Yes0c7,789$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5849…a99ebacked Yes0c7,507$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.64100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde2c…d1b3backed Yes1c6,257$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes1c5,949$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2700%0 W · 70 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes1c5,837$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7454.4%2 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-68.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c5,758$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.971,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes1c5,720$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.71825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad7…e72bbacked Yes1c5,654$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50110%0 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes1c5,456$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44434.7%2 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e4d…1399backed Yes0c5,100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0100…a303backed Yes1c3,986$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5480%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c3,082$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6126312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a29…df67backed Yes2c3,007$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48d2…c177backed Yes0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes13c2,832$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.224233.3%14 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes0c2,791$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.422522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffab…0912backed Yes1c2,746$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick11cpaid+118.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d73…0a6dbacked Yes50c2,652$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2e9…31bfbacked No50c2,652$1,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e1…2f63backed No50c2,650$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3253100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x155a…a281backed Yes50c2,650$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb41b…b786backed Yes1c2,598$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c2,543$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.492560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes1c2,335$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.33712.8%2 W · 69 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x187a…87ccbacked Yes1c2,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed Yes10c1,927$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.698815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x939b…9cd7backed Yes1c1,743$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.711618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-70.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked Yes30c1,439$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.981631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c6c…3533backed Yes1c1,437$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes1c1,436$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.911435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+48.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed Yes1c1,403$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.557636.8%28 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x98e8…ab20backed Yes24c1,250$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.922821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes1c1,250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.283810.5%4 W · 34 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-75.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4af3…d205backed Yes2c1,119$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf34b…760cbacked Yes1c1,075$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe843…ebc1backed Yes1c1,030$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-52.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2a8…8466backed Yes3c999.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xada4…48babacked Yes25c650.1$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.25200%0 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No72c507.33$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.618041.3%33 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef4a…287cbacked Yes33c300.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf21a…1e6cbacked Yes5c299.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141520%3 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No65c290.41$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.358551.8%44 W · 41 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0a…a3b9backed Yes35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-65.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed No67c266.89$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.864221.4%9 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-54.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No35c252.5$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.64348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ff…9817backed Yes66c240.05$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed Yes9c230$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.723537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes7c214$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9818311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x749a…f349backed Yes32c212$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1920…a04ebacked Yes23c202$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.38450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No74c201.63$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.617852.6%41 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c1b…2527backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5def…1283backed Yes14c198.25$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.032222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefe1…84b0backed Yes41c188.89$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x995c…8770backed Yes54c185.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002850%14 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fd0…bdcfbacked Yes30c168.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes57c164.45$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.34520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-72.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x975e…e15abacked Yes65c154.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes30c134.39$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-68.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc810…9d2ebacked Yes16c126.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f5e…1773backed Yes20c100.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.71866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+111.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes16c92.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.851414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadd5…9b5fbacked Yes35c85.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-63.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4685…fe25backed Yes30c83.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes31c77.34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.984360.5%26 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No34c72.9$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.023767.6%25 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5cb3…5874backed Yes30c66.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3c4…0b07backed Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7740…cbcdbacked No69c58$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.882259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes26c54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.17250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc79…469bbacked Yes76c53.12$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0783…4ac7backed Yes28c36.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1192…ae74backed Yes30c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcccb…53cdbacked No63c31.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-46.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff55…2befbacked Yes64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.