AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecc7593d4d3a0cbcd6611380bb6001331e14b0a9953f77ea5e66772e2df9c327
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $369,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $207,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $369,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 28,211$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.74 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb74…0a09backed Yes | 2c | 19,528$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 1c | 19,298$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.52 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 12,497$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 1c | 12,451$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,635$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54fa…0fbcbacked Yes | 1c | 10,577$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 1c | 10,369$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…5d0ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,870$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 8,298$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c21…9bd9backed Yes | 0c | 7,789$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…a99ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,507$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde2c…d1b3backed Yes | 1c | 6,257$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 5,949$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,837$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,758$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.97 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 1c | 5,720$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad7…e72bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,654$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes | 1c | 5,456$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4d…1399backed Yes | 0c | 5,100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…a303backed Yes | 1c | 3,986$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,082$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a29…df67backed Yes | 2c | 3,007$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d2…c177backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,832$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.22 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 2,791$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…0912backed Yes | 1c | 2,746$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d73…0a6dbacked Yes | 50c | 2,652$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e9…31bfbacked No | 50c | 2,652$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…2f63backed No | 50c | 2,650$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x155a…a281backed Yes | 50c | 2,650$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…b786backed Yes | 1c | 2,598$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 2,543$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,335$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187a…87ccbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 10c | 1,927$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.69 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 1c | 1,743$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked Yes | 30c | 1,439$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.98 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6c…3533backed Yes | 1c | 1,437$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,436$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 1c | 1,403$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…ab20backed Yes | 24c | 1,250$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.92 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af3…d205backed Yes | 2c | 1,119$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…760cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,075$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…ebc1backed Yes | 1c | 1,030$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…8466backed Yes | 3c | 999.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…48babacked Yes | 25c | 650.1$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.25 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 72c | 507.33$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.61 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef4a…287cbacked Yes | 33c | 300.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked Yes | 5c | 299.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 65c | 290.41$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.35 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…a3b9backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 67c | 266.89$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.86 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 35c | 252.5$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.6 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…9817backed Yes | 66c | 240.05$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 9c | 230$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 7c | 214$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749a…f349backed Yes | 32c | 212$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 23c | 202$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 74c | 201.63$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…2527backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…1283backed Yes | 14c | 198.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefe1…84b0backed Yes | 41c | 188.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…8770backed Yes | 54c | 185.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd0…bdcfbacked Yes | 30c | 168.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 57c | 164.45$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x975e…e15abacked Yes | 65c | 154.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 30c | 134.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc810…9d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 126.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed Yes | 20c | 100.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 16c | 92.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…9b5fbacked Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4685…fe25backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 31c | 77.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 34c | 72.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb3…5874backed Yes | 30c | 66.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…0b07backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 69c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc79…469bbacked Yes | 76c | 53.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0783…4ac7backed Yes | 28c | 36.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…ae74backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccb…53cdbacked No | 63c | 31.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff55…2befbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Oracle be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.