AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab7d76f02a21673afc22278065e2c6e94776596b6916872388bc5262910fd332
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $673,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $730,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $673,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 572 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed No | 2c | 19,367$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.62 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked No | 14c | 10,120$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.43 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 8,891$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.81 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6211…33acbacked Yes | 51c | 8,860$4,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,341.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed No | 4c | 8,101$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.28 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 7,883$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce29…b71bbacked Yes | 80c | 7,596$6,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 7,311$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.4 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 0c | 6,366$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 10c | 5,280$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.67 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x257d…e332backed No | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb74…0a09backed No | 8c | 4,799$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 3c | 4,719$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.37 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…5529backed No | 2c | 4,535$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked No | 16c | 4,473$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.68 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…1f46backed No | 1c | 4,465$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 4,446$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.62 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 6c | 4,394$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.15 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed No | 1c | 4,185$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 4,125$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.72 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked No | 14c | 4,000$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.25 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…2830backed No | 49c | 3,860$1,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,891.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…c136backed Yes | 80c | 3,800$3,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 3c | 3,680$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.65 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 15c | 3,449$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.2 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 4c | 3,331$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.66 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 3,161$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…84bfbacked Yes | 65c | 3,000$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 5c | 2,710$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.21 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 7c | 2,700$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1517…5b34backed Yes | 63c | 2,450$1,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 13c | 2,240$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.68 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 4c | 2,195$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…0b7dbacked No | 5c | 2,167$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 30c | 2,151$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.76 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 75c | 2,064$1,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 24c | 2,011$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.77 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed No | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…9262backed No | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.98 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 1c | 1,940$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed No | 7c | 1,896$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.05 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a93…ecf9backed Yes | 67c | 1,849$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6c…3533backed No | 5c | 1,777$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 18c | 1,741$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.04 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 5c | 1,730$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126b…a516backed Yes | 78c | 1,636$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed No | 19c | 1,564$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.57 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…9f97backed No | 5c | 1,463$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…12ecbacked Yes | 69c | 1,430$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes | 74c | 1,400$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 5c | 1,400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 16c | 1,249$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.05 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c21…9bd9backed No | 1c | 1,189$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 11c | 1,127$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.58 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed No | 13c | 1,111$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.34 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 19c | 1,041$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.47 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86dc…ec76backed Yes | 73c | 1,023$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc564…5be7backed No | 2c | 1,013$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 9c | 1,013$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.64 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 12c | 994.97$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 71c | 984.66$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.75 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a29…df67backed No | 6c | 896.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 30c | 867.84$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.38 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x107a…e084backed Yes | 67c | 843.63$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…1481backed No | 2c | 833.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…1cb8backed Yes | 77c | 813.92$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 53c | 774.55$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.94 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 59c | 772.28$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.24 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked No | 12c | 704.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 65c | 699.99$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x966e…b2febacked Yes | 55c | 667.26$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc6…81aabacked Yes | 76c | 657.04$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc382…1043backed Yes | 77c | 652.99$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…d5fdbacked Yes | 77c | 649.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x092c…3175backed Yes | 63c | 632.78$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…6890backed No | 24c | 607$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes | 64c | 602$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.86 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4972…f231backed Yes | 77c | 601.5$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 12c | 596.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 49c | 590$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.1 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…b1f5backed Yes | 70c | 570.32$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 13c | 566.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…e858backed No | 49c | 555$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd175…bb3abacked Yes | 77c | 519.61$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…f60bbacked No | 2c | 509.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7b…48e2backed No | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…a80ebacked Yes | 67c | 496.85$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…c686backed No | 9c | 463.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 47c | 461.08$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.4 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 56c | 455.81$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 23c | 447.75$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 51c | 435$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebae…881fbacked Yes | 67c | 434.39$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…af7abacked Yes | 66c | 434.12$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed No | 21c | 422$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 70c | 421.4$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.98 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed No | 39c | 407$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.86 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eda…75ddbacked No | 47c | 405.19$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ee…cf68backed No | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.63 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Oracle be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.