AI · resolved market

Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75d81a83efe402686cfe1a7fcc5160ec8f9e7f0edb1cf878aeb5abf32b6230e9

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: AIevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,210,581
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $82,110

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,210,581 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in AI
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	25,069$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.07	101	0%0 W · 101 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d3a…dacfbacked Yes	0c	20,920$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.92	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x805d…a89bbacked Yes	0c	20,880$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ac…c51dbacked Yes	0c	20,880$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedee…ea11backed Yes	0c	20,874$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.99	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc711…253dbacked Yes	0c	20,820$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.82	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4763…731bbacked Yes	0c	20,800$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c52…630bbacked Yes	0c	20,720$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.72	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe90f…d3b3backed Yes	0c	20,720$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.72	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe165…2d4dbacked Yes	0c	20,720$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.72	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c50…efc9backed Yes	0c	20,440$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec11…632ebacked Yes	0c	20,360$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.36	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8648…2241backed Yes	0c	19,969$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.97	15	0%0 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x536d…01e6backed Yes	0c	19,720$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.72	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	17,725$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.73	27	0%0 W · 27 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2836…91a6backed Yes	0c	10,490$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a77…dcccbacked Yes	0c	10,490$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x48f2…2750backed Yes	0c	10,490$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73ba…5a17backed Yes	0c	10,490$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff3f…d118backed Yes	0c	10,480$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.48	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf724…ed07backed Yes	0c	10,470$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.47	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05a6…53b9backed Yes	0c	10,470$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.47	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa86…5a44backed Yes	0c	10,460$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.46	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be8…1c45backed Yes	0c	10,460$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.46	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51a2…4a55backed Yes	0c	10,460$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.46	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe52c…10f5backed Yes	0c	10,450$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9699…7ae7backed Yes	0c	10,450$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac8d…622ebacked Yes	0c	10,450$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa74c…c080backed Yes	0c	10,450$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e8b…3f65backed Yes	0c	10,440$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c88…d584backed Yes	0c	10,440$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1c8…9270backed Yes	0c	10,440$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c57…4f19backed Yes	0c	10,440$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde73…0281backed Yes	0c	10,440$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8adb…264abacked Yes	0c	10,420$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.42	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb946…b80dbacked Yes	0c	10,420$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.42	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x72c3…ae86backed Yes	0c	10,410$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.41	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0ee…ef7abacked Yes	0c	10,410$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.41	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7bf…0b92backed Yes	0c	10,410$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.41	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab68…2d99backed Yes	0c	10,410$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.41	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x332e…6ea7backed Yes	0c	10,410$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.41	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0be…8dd9backed Yes	0c	10,410$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.41	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd378…5ceabacked Yes	0c	10,400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x938a…9cfbbacked Yes	0c	10,400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc850…71debacked Yes	0c	10,380$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.38	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fac…59dbbacked Yes	0c	10,380$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.38	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bb6…50bcbacked Yes	0c	10,380$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.38	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…76e6backed Yes	0c	10,380$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.38	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9d9…b691backed Yes	0c	10,370$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.37	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9402…006fbacked Yes	0c	10,360$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x00c5…e851backed Yes	0c	10,360$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60ba…a247backed Yes	0c	10,360$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x489a…dd38backed Yes	0c	10,350$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb3f…cde8backed Yes	0c	10,350$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c42…2cb2backed Yes	0c	10,340$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee4f…6f59backed Yes	0c	10,340$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4451…ffe1backed Yes	0c	10,340$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c47…ad36backed Yes	0c	10,330$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.33	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x965d…51acbacked Yes	0c	10,330$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.33	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e9a…af4ebacked Yes	0c	10,320$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d83…3c6fbacked Yes	0c	10,320$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7511…5cc5backed Yes	0c	10,320$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc104…2db4backed Yes	0c	10,310$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.31	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6d7…97e7backed Yes	0c	10,310$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.31	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b89…eb06backed Yes	0c	10,290$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.29	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68b2…72babacked Yes	0c	10,280$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.28	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcfba…8e06backed Yes	0c	10,270$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.27	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x94b5…7150backed Yes	0c	10,270$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.27	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b28…223bbacked Yes	0c	10,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x000c…7bb1backed Yes	0c	10,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22a2…7114backed Yes	0c	10,230$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.23	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc39f…11b6backed Yes	0c	10,230$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.23	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc75…cd86backed Yes	0c	10,220$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.22	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf394…398bbacked Yes	0c	10,210$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3137…d300backed Yes	0c	10,210$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7716…4d69backed Yes	0c	10,210$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95e1…ba44backed Yes	0c	10,200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce7…f1c9backed Yes	0c	10,200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47a9…d24dbacked Yes	0c	10,190$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x931a…ebc3backed Yes	0c	10,170$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.17	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d39…a830backed Yes	0c	10,120$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbafa…8ee5backed Yes	0c	10,120$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38a8…bb6cbacked Yes	0c	10,060$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.06	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4908…2d4abacked Yes	0c	10,020$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12c3…a470backed Yes	0c	7,239$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?this page
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes won
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
Will Oracle be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event