TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$427,324
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$367,264

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $427,324 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 337 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes22c23,662$5,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,316.268641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe97c…2a99backed No69c11,531$7,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,581.12360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes10c9,628$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.02156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-72.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9f2…0c24backed Yes41c8,691$3,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5252714.8%4 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-40.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes12c8,467$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.14385.3%2 W · 36 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes13c8,024$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.8217931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No77c7,570$5,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,742.3751138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes14c7,356$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.1443212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes22c6,845$1,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,496.441250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc160…ce0abacked Yes26c5,901$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.452532%8 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes10c5,702$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.5142120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes11c5,515$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.04258%2 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-79.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes10c5,500$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.862313%3 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa074…f1c9backed Yes19c5,481$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.44911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-84.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c16…bd37backed Yes8c5,462$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.811520%3 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba32…deaabacked Yes5c5,275$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250382.6%1 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd74…6425backed Yes6c5,198$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.58650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No70c5,009$3,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,492.2435347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52be…a121backed Yes10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick38cpaid-84.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4760…0a49backed No69c4,591$3,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,431.672181%17 W · 4 L+6.1wins+0.29per pick52cpaid+55.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Yes19c4,224$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.74520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes14c3,950$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.320823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9095…0b3cbacked Yes10c3,533$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No63c3,404$2,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.339831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaca…49e6backed Yes18c3,404$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb273…aa63backed Yes14c3,388$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.177423%17 W · 57 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed No74c3,354$2,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.861855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1664…2babbacked Yes37c3,350$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc3d…83f8backed Yes7c3,340$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No78c3,327$2,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.925354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes1c3,306$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0926619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed Yes14c3,184$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4406440.6%26 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes8c3,181$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.358617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes12c3,050$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.4512333.3%41 W · 82 L+13.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+28.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes10c3,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db1…46a4backed Yes14c2,984$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.662634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c2,930$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.7289617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe529…8a7cbacked No78c2,925$2,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.241533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-54.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7f40…0fefbacked Yes7c2,907$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddc0…3a00backed No70c2,853$1,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.542548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78c5…1ecabacked Yes10c2,822$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c2,770$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.382078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b98…3959backed Yes6c2,688$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes15c2,644$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.657142.3%30 W · 41 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8d5…4ad3backed Yes5c2,546$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9850%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa510…1f80backed Yes7c2,542$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.497413.5%10 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0394…3ef9backed Yes9c2,360$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.41540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0341…3ff3backed Yes12c2,194$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2632245.5%10 W · 12 L+4.2wins+0.19per pick26cpaid+72.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe313…6963backed Yes15c2,178$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-48.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafa9…5afabacked Yes4c2,149$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed No71c2,065$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.6211537.4%43 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Yes6c2,016$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.0260%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b7e…79e5backed No79c1,893$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.111758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes8c1,837$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.21235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x53af…629fbacked Yes19c1,688$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.3616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c1,622$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.671,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1287…e491backed Yes9c1,546$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1404717%8 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No63c1,520$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.649023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x003d…7a58backed No73c1,429$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.933100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc667…d6d2backed Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes35c1,416$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.2816961.5%104 W · 65 L+12.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes24c1,400$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.294010%4 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-71.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes4c1,366$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.21879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34d2…75a8backed No77c1,292$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.322015%3 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-64.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes9c1,250$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.2923525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Yes5c1,192$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603627.8%10 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-31.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x410a…e8b8backed Yes13c1,100$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402055%11 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No58c1,060$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.8521259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes26c1,050$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.520336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes27c1,041$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.54835.4%17 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29022547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick21cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a4f…042bbacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002528%7 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c53…44f2backed Yes15c996.54$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.411827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-53.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87d6…95e6backed No77c946.83$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.77666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9df…d8bcbacked Yes5c937.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff1…72ebbacked No65c912.6$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.893250%16 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes1c900.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.664339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked No70c860.09$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.214032.5%13 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-52%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes33c843.81$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27617929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes31c837.83$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.735747.4%27 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb936…4769backed Yes5c834.89$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fad…f5c0backed Yes36c826.48$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.93661.1%22 W · 14 L+9.1wins+0.25per pick36cpaid+51.7%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes7c803$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.622532%8 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked Yes49c785.84$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.951637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-44.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed No75c768.23$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.255749.1%28 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes19c762.95$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.2786542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaece…b156backed Yes4c758.46$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc369…4e87backed Yes3c732$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.16726.9%5 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf904…85ecbacked Yes14c708.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a3d…615ebacked Yes23c706$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.352365.2%15 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7102…28b4backed Yes1c699.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes7c683.41$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.94663%2 W · 64 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-95.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x03e5…dd0fbacked Yes30c669.19$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.361936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+48.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbea…19f4backed Yes31c638.89$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-20.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No65c637.2$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.027538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e1f…7828backed Yes20c609.93$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.933724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+76.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc51c…2177backed Yes5c599.89$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.280%0 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.