Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x545d755d9b10944436bda0536893dc2efeb26b9e3d4e594460e728c51bace61f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $427,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $367,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $427,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 337 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 22c | 23,662$5,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,316.26 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe97c…2a99backed No | 69c | 11,531$7,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,581.1 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 10c | 9,628$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.02 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f2…0c24backed Yes | 41c | 8,691$3,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,525 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 12c | 8,467$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.14 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 13c | 8,024$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.82 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 77c | 7,570$5,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,742.37 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 14c | 7,356$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.14 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 22c | 6,845$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 26c | 5,901$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.45 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 5,702$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.51 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 11c | 5,515$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.04 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 10c | 5,500$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.86 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa074…f1c9backed Yes | 19c | 5,481$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…bd37backed Yes | 8c | 5,462$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.81 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba32…deaabacked Yes | 5c | 5,275$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…6425backed Yes | 6c | 5,198$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 70c | 5,009$3,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.24 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…a121backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed No | 69c | 4,591$3,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.67 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.29per pick | 52cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Yes | 19c | 4,224$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 14c | 3,950$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.3 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9095…0b3cbacked Yes | 10c | 3,533$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 63c | 3,404$2,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.33 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Yes | 18c | 3,404$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 14c | 3,388$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.17 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 74c | 3,354$2,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.86 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1664…2babbacked Yes | 37c | 3,350$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3d…83f8backed Yes | 7c | 3,340$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 78c | 3,327$2,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.92 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,306$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 14c | 3,184$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 8c | 3,181$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.35 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 12c | 3,050$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.45 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db1…46a4backed Yes | 14c | 2,984$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.66 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 2,930$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.72 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…8a7cbacked No | 78c | 2,925$2,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…0fefbacked Yes | 7c | 2,907$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc0…3a00backed No | 70c | 2,853$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.54 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…1ecabacked Yes | 10c | 2,822$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 2,770$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…3959backed Yes | 6c | 2,688$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 15c | 2,644$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.65 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d5…4ad3backed Yes | 5c | 2,546$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 7c | 2,542$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.49 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0394…3ef9backed Yes | 9c | 2,360$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…3ff3backed Yes | 12c | 2,194$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe313…6963backed Yes | 15c | 2,178$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5afabacked Yes | 4c | 2,149$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 71c | 2,065$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.62 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Yes | 6c | 2,016$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.02 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…79e5backed No | 79c | 1,893$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.11 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 8c | 1,837$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53af…629fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,688$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,622$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.67 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…e491backed Yes | 9c | 1,546$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 63c | 1,520$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.6 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x003d…7a58backed No | 73c | 1,429$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc667…d6d2backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 35c | 1,416$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.28 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,400$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.29 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 4c | 1,366$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d2…75a8backed No | 77c | 1,292$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.32 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,250$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.29 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 5c | 1,192$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…e8b8backed Yes | 13c | 1,100$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 58c | 1,060$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.85 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 26c | 1,050$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.5 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,041$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.5 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4f…042bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 15c | 996.54$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.41 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…95e6backed No | 77c | 946.83$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9df…d8bcbacked Yes | 5c | 937.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked No | 65c | 912.6$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.89 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 1c | 900.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 70c | 860.09$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.21 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 33c | 843.81$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 31c | 837.83$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.73 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb936…4769backed Yes | 5c | 834.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…f5c0backed Yes | 36c | 826.48$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.9 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +9.1wins | +0.25per pick | 36cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 7c | 803$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 49c | 785.84$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.95 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 75c | 768.23$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.25 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 762.95$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.27 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…b156backed Yes | 4c | 758.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 3c | 732$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…85ecbacked Yes | 14c | 708.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked Yes | 23c | 706$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.35 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7102…28b4backed Yes | 1c | 699.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 683.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Yes | 30c | 669.19$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.36 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…19f4backed Yes | 31c | 638.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 65c | 637.2$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.02 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1f…7828backed Yes | 20c | 609.93$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.93 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc51c…2177backed Yes | 5c | 599.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.