Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x337455612db41e7883fb55751fe15ac7ce2e508abed73bfeda195c0c00196e8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $224,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $241,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 55c | 7,026$3,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,136.67 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 39c | 5,654$2,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,224.63 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 23c | 5,616$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.51 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 78c | 4,489$3,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.86 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 39c | 4,208$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,585.12 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 3,826$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,024.09 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked No | 8c | 3,781$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.9 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 36c | 3,337$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.24 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,970 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 19c | 1,893$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.96 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c5…85b2backed Yes | 74c | 1,719$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,568$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421.52 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 17c | 1,436$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.41 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,408$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.11 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 11c | 1,400$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.15 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked No | 6c | 1,400$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304d…07f1backed No | 29c | 1,292$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.75 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6445…f190backed Yes | 79c | 1,250$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 16c | 1,179$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.87 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…f21ebacked Yes | 69c | 1,156$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.13 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed No | 62c | 1,055$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.52 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…0d50backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +9,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…57a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +9,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4623…3e8fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +9,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1725…400ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +9,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…8018backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +9,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x316c…049cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +9,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…18a0backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +9,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25d4…283dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +9,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4db6…eb2ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +9,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeadc…470fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +9,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22ee…d8cdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +4,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…5428backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +9,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…6200backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 11cpaid | +4,900%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba0…458dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +9,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c9…8de2backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +9,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e4…7ef8backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +9,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…e066backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +9,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0a…8327backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 2cpaid | +4,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 20c | 904.54$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.54 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d50…8eebbacked Yes | 75c | 757.38$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.42 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 18c | 754.61$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.01 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 60c | 712.9$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.92 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05c…aa9bbacked Yes | 79c | 659.48$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 30c | 626.45$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.6 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 14c | 600.83$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.21 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d2…a6b3backed Yes | 78c | 600$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bd…b05abacked Yes | 59c | 591.11$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26db…7abcbacked Yes | 35c | 566.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.66 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…78cabacked Yes | 27c | 522$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.91 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d1…373cbacked Yes | 77c | 518.49$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 8c | 500$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.15 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +236.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…748dbacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 8c | 500$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.24 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 10c | 493.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.1 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b3…3dffbacked Yes | 22c | 492.77$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82f…fe06backed Yes | 42c | 477.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.46 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…b631backed Yes | 31c | 472.97$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Yes | 68c | 439.34$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.34 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65e…95b8backed Yes | 44c | 407.72$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 33c | 383.42$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.75 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5822…0d28backed Yes | 18c | 382.74$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.08 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 3c | 381.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.7 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 29c | 378.08$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.75 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 69c | 369.36$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.38 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…db3dbacked Yes | 20c | 365.24$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +509%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…2dadbacked Yes | 75c | 363.99$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…1193backed Yes | 29c | 349.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 30cpaid | +113%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 13c | 315.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.08 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 37c | 313$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.68 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 77c | 305.41$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.41 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 50c | 301.8$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.8 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa5…4f1abacked No | 38c | 300$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e55…e157backed Yes | 19c | 299.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.59 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d69…34d7backed Yes | 26c | 292.19$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce75…d6ddbacked Yes | 30c | 288.73$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +235%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…27c4backed Yes | 78c | 276.37$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 14c | 275$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.55 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 31c | 261.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.61 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…2c59backed Yes | 78c | 256.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fa…6ebabacked Yes | 77c | 251.27$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…5490backed Yes | 43c | 249.95$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.35 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…bfd6backed Yes | 80c | 241.12$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 47c | 239.87$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.3 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 238.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.28 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaf…c42dbacked Yes | 79c | 225.98$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed No | 69c | 223.5$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.17 | 181 | 63%114 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed No | 10c | 220$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes | 76c | 210.54$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes | 31c | 201.34$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.91 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1de…85d9backed Yes | 42c | 200.52$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.52 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9871…4a6cbacked Yes | 20c | 200.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.56 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…c997backed Yes | 7c | 200.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.63 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…7ec2backed Yes | 78c | 190.25$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 12c | 186.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.65 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afb…7f99backed Yes | 20c | 175.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 17cpaid | +217.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5db7…d755backed No | 72c | 174.07$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.