Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2476e15a7d24f8c6ba041f8e8a948c5d5181637f03aec04a5a6792d60052ea1d

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 7, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $214,713
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $119,916

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,713 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	22,454$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.45	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	8c	17,666$1,378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,377.84	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	14c	6,384$907 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$906.53	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	17c	5,846$989 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$989.33	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes	21c	4,530$952 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$952.46	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	13c	4,498$585 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$584.79	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	10c	4,219$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.23	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	18c	3,651$640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$639.87	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	4c	3,300$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.15	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	15c	3,080$472 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$472.44	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	11c	3,028$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.6	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c5…0166backed Yes	16c	3,014$482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$482.38	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-71%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	8c	3,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.97	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	11c	2,937$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.02	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28d5…8433backed Yes	4c	2,578$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	2c	2,500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	14c	2,343$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.1	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes	24c	2,119$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.17per pick	24cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	16c	2,000$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.5	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	21c	2,000$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	71c	1,996$1,413 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$582.69	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	8c	1,950$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.58	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	9c	1,945$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.04	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	3c	1,798$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.2	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	16c	1,708$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.67	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	72c	1,615$1,167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$448.07	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	11c	1,614$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.44	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	1,491$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2256…b932backed Yes	3c	1,457$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	16c	1,430$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.03	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	6c	1,351$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.17	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	15c	1,347$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.15	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe9…78cabacked Yes	33c	1,265$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.51	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	24c	1,210$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.06	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	27c	1,129$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.46	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5822…0d28backed Yes	31c	1,108$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.36	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes	2c	1,100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	347	14.7%51 W · 296 L	+13.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76ef…a482backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	20c	990.63$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.24	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	18c	987.35$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	17c	960.92$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes	18c	954.68$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.92	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes	19c	911.03$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.63	84	13.1%11 W · 73 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	8c	780$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.58	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes	22c	712.93$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.48	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5632…748dbacked Yes	23c	600$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.3	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	558$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.69	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9426…0b66backed Yes	24c	524.07$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e6b…8115backed No	68c	501.59$341 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.61	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes	19c	500.3$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.05	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	8c	493.83$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes	25c	487.57$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	11c	450$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.95	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d9…797cbacked Yes	17c	444.72$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.25	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	18c	410.15$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.03	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	16c	410$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.58	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes	45c	399.99$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	6c	399.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.59	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	16c	399.23$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.48	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	3c	374.62$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.58	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	20c	353.43$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.38	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc432…9343backed Yes	31c	321.89$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x663b…6a3ebacked Yes	30c	305.13$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.87	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8667…8e0bbacked Yes	21c	300$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.15	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	12c	299.98$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.2	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	6c	299.61$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.77	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2441…6d21backed Yes	24c	295$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.62	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	22c	274.2$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed Yes	23c	273.27$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	56	25%14 W · 42 L	-4.9wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x42f4…9152backed Yes	32c	271.76$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No	71c	270.72$191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.54	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df5…27c4backed No	80c	268.61$215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.84	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c22…9717backed Yes	23c	265.12$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.16	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	19c	265.05$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.88	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	30c	264.55$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.11	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	10c	230$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.48	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5067…6d69backed Yes	26c	229.23$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.34	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb67f…7b75backed No	75c	225.33$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.68	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes	19c	223.57$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	431	26.2%113 W · 318 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1b44…e9cabacked No	75c	208.84$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.4	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes	49c	203.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	60	38.3%23 W · 37 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9871…4a6cbacked Yes	11c	202.23$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.1	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1de…85d9backed Yes	24c	200.08$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.2	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+41.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddaf…1d28backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes	21c	200$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.22	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	8c	200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.68	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	10c	198.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.58	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d69…34d7backed Yes	16c	190.35$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	28c	190.24$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c5e…53d3backed Yes	8c	182.71$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No	64c	181.5$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.25	21	85.7%18 W · 3 L	+4.0wins	+0.19per pick	67cpaid	+42.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8bce…c476backed Yes	28c	177.45$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	78	23.1%18 W · 60 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf801…fdfbbacked No	79c	176.23$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.23	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64f3…47e2backed No	75c	167.29$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.32	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe54f…6b4dbacked Yes	26c	154.08$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2216…4accbacked Yes	26c	149.97$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.48	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+2.9wins	+0.22per pick	24cpaid	+179%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbe5c…e438backed No	75c	148.61$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.87	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes	24c	148.15$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	94	17%16 W · 78 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee2…c260backed Yes	25c	140.98$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	125	23.2%29 W · 96 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc73e…2a79backed Yes	19c	115$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.54	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event