Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf20027189a6be71f6ad3556e1666eef0c624962b23f37a7254e388a185e77ea

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 7, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $238,895
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $119,361

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,895 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	2c	63,012$1,038 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,037.88	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	19,401$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.96	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	10,215$379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.66	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	8c	10,000$778 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$778.19	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	7c	8,424$612 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$612.32	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	6,655$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.95	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	4c	4,895$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.62	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	6c	4,000$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	2,819$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.25	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	2,743$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.48	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c5…0166backed Yes	1c	2,283$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.49	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-71%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	9c	2,235$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.77	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	7c	2,233$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.43	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb409…d114backed Yes	5c	2,229$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.04	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	10c	2,135$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.67	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5822…0d28backed Yes	4c	2,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes	6c	1,630$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.17per pick	24cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	2c	1,556$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.56	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	1,500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	3c	1,500$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	4c	1,198$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.96	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	1,191$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.72	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	5c	1,111$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.21	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	4c	1,045$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.42	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72c0…500dbacked Yes	2c	1,029$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.46	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	980.5$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.23	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	4c	975.03$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	1c	900$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	7c	765.37$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.1	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes	4c	713.09$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.28	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	9c	702.88$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.36	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf414…917fbacked Yes	3c	673.79$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-69.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	6c	559.14$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xddaf…1d28backed Yes	6c	529.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.21	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5fc…9850backed Yes	4c	427.53$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f93…a2c8backed Yes	4c	398.36$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcfc6…aef0backed Yes	5c	380$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.52	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x675c…9678backed Yes	11c	351.59$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.7wins	+0.12per pick	16cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2ba…886fbacked Yes	5c	343.75$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.66	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	9c	322.04$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2105…c514backed Yes	4c	313.68$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.92	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-43%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	5c	300.05$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.57	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe9…78cabacked Yes	4c	299.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	10c	293.99$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	289.77$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.62	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	287.29$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.33	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd74d…4ef6backed Yes	4c	243.9$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	7c	241.35$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.05	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed Yes	5c	220.48$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.48	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	5c	207.55$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8bce…c476backed Yes	16c	202.1$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.44	78	23.1%18 W · 60 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8667…8e0bbacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.3	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c22…9717backed Yes	7c	168.8$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes	10c	153.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	94	17%16 W · 78 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49a8…5cf9backed Yes	15c	152$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	11c	135.77$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb166…7ba1backed Yes	15c	133$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d2a…72f2backed Yes	15c	73$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event