Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7040029463920613018ca751d3a059302097368e7ea983226d3e3dffd4ce8da7

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 3, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $33,933
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $14,855

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,933 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	4,079$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.39	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61f3…ada9backed Yes	1c	3,955$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.96	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	9cpaid	-52.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88e2…8b9cbacked Yes	2c	2,476$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6b…23b0backed Yes	30c	1,662$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+153.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	500$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.76	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked No	10c	283.37$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255.03	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	228.03$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x754f…4e38backed Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x406f…7279backed Yes	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.88	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	28cpaid	-77.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd20f…cc5ebacked Yes	13c	172.46$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa52a…5b16backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db5…d5a6backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	12cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8de9…3171backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event