Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa83ce70ffb7beb220002e9ccade3c26f91053c94c34c903d7b5bc1106a5312f7

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 5, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $119,488
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $28,649

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,488 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	17,754$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.01	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	0c	10,663$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	10,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x899d…4adcbacked Yes	1c	3,105$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.3	44	11.4%5 W · 39 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+42.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	1c	3,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,363$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.57	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf414…917fbacked Yes	1c	2,140$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-69.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	1c	1,448$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.43	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	17c	1,041$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.33	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	5c	955.88$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.27	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	6c	829.98$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.59	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	15c	692.06$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.88	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	526.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.39	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	15c	125$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee2…c260backed Yes	15c	110$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	125	23.2%29 W · 96 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9c8f…5c18backed Yes	14c	107.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	15c	80.66$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event