Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe5f665ddc2c2b7f8216e301540c81230edf14845f3ba6491402df1dd411c227

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 6, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $175,552
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $78,001

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,552 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	2c	44,415$709 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$709.2	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	24c	8,348$1,976 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,976.01	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	7,234$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.49	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	4c	5,128$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.99	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	4c	4,770$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.68	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	22c	4,653$1,025 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,024.72	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	4,618$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.71	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb4…b811backed Yes	19c	4,033$766 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$765.9	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	3c	4,000$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.5	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,390$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.26	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	12c	3,242$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.58	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	2c	3,000$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.94	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e59…a17cbacked Yes	14c	1,800$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.4	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	15c	1,698$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.96	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	8c	1,670$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.73	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	9c	1,646$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.74	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	20c	1,563$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.54	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,552$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.76	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	8c	1,367$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.98	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	13c	1,210$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.41	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8498…d219backed Yes	1c	1,131$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.19	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	22c	1,098$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked No	69c	1,000$690 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No	75c	998.98$749 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.74	68	19.1%13 W · 55 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	976.14$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.13	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	9c	864.05$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.18	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfed7…5490backed Yes	19c	718.28$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	16c	661.05$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.92	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	77c	620.4$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.08	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	15c	602.84$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed4a…2dc9backed Yes	33c	598.18$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	20c	592.25$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.45	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	7c	506.68$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.08	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0850…74c5backed Yes	22c	456.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	6c	408$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.78	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x602f…20e1backed Yes	20c	376.45$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.53	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5822…0d28backed Yes	15c	371.17$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.68	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	9c	338.31$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.51	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	9c	331.1$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	67c	326.54$218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.37	315	65.1%205 W · 110 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	70c	300$209 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes	13c	300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.8	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21d9…797cbacked Yes	10c	300$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	77c	300$231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	24c	299.99$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9afb…7f99backed Yes	22c	225$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.15per pick	17cpaid	+217.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9b3…3dffbacked Yes	22c	205.58$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.17	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+46.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	78c	204.96$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.09	169	45%76 W · 93 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes	5c	201.04$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.04	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed No	70c	200$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	30c	200$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff70…2475backed Yes	20c	149.1$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6acd…2fa7backed Yes	34c	118.24$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.22per pick	39cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5638…5e50backed Yes	17c	100.54$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…3da3backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51f4…bd6abacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5a…4407backed Yes	17c	99.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa5…4f1abacked No	76c	99.99$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.5	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc70…3ebcbacked Yes	31c	94$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.17	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	20c	90.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c06…dd56backed No	78c	90$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.6	96	61.5%59 W · 37 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b4b…8790backed Yes	20c	75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.14per pick	31cpaid	-69.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5fa…fe6ebacked Yes	31c	64.31$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No	79c	55.19$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.63	271	5.2%14 W · 257 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf89d…63a2backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf87c…55b9backed Yes	21c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddaf…1d28backed No	78c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.4	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e6a…53afbacked No	68c	17.4$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.57	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event