Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c687f6b973b73669fa2f61a711062b2d943b69fa2a6e8a424c9e496ce6cf7bf

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 7, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $227,891
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $104,529

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,891 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	6c	30,110$1,881 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,881.1	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	10c	18,083$1,793 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,793.24	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	17,599$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.49	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…393abacked Yes	0c	12,756$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	1c	7,630$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.3	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	7c	5,711$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389.27	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	9c	5,220$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.95	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	20c	4,973$994 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$993.76	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	4,110$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.97	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	4c	4,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes	33c	3,069$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.9	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.17per pick	24cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	12c	2,915$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.46	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	23c	2,524$583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$582.55	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes	16c	2,226$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.99	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d36…8f64backed Yes	18c	2,125$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$379.97	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	16c	1,598$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.72	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	18c	1,575$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.26	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	15c	1,568$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.58	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	16c	1,500$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.9	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes	19c	1,431$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	18c	1,377$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.34	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	11c	1,342$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.73	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	76c	1,336$1,010 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$325.83	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	17c	1,322$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5822…0d28backed Yes	22c	1,198$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.23	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7d1…9a49backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7899…e519backed Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2354…3017backed Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78f0…2a77backed Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf1…6a95backed Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7b9…4a1fbacked Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	14c	942.84$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.64	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	19c	870$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.67	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5632…748dbacked Yes	22c	800$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes	23c	772.15$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.19	84	13.1%11 W · 73 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	13c	752.49$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.46	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	20c	750.94$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	76c	750$572 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.85	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	15c	741.11$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.61	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	16c	719.82$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.71	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	3c	669.91$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.64	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3814…f0bfbacked No	79c	652.22$518 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.81	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	71cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2840…b631backed Yes	30c	602.67$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-37%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	14c	560.32$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.94	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed No	78c	515.71$402 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.33	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	15c	500$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.5	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	17c	436.98$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.81	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes	24c	413.1$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes	16c	413$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.28	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98ec…8fd6backed Yes	24c	410$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.22	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	9c	400$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.73	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfed7…5490backed Yes	20c	394.09$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	14c	387.86$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	12c	387.62$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.39	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes	21c	360.54$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.45	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x602f…20e1backed Yes	14c	348.48$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.29	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed No	75c	329.98$249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.91	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	16c	300.03$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.68	731	15.2%111 W · 620 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes	15c	300$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.8	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe9…78cabacked Yes	20c	300$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	22c	299.99$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.48	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	20c	278.35$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	18c	254.73$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.15	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	23c	254.41$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.39	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa5…4f1abacked No	79c	250$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.3	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	14c	242$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.54	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd99f…4400backed No	78c	240.13$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.22	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8498…d219backed Yes	22c	235.92$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.93	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7740…cbcdbacked No	73c	231$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.85	40	55%22 W · 18 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x868d…8d9dbacked Yes	22c	228.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	28cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed No	76c	225.99$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	21c	225.12$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.28	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	18c	223$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.85	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5874…a9d7backed Yes	25c	201.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1de…85d9backed Yes	25c	200.63$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+41.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9871…4a6cbacked Yes	28c	200.56$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.5	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes	23c	200$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.32	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes	18c	200$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.33	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.11per pick	20cpaid	-78.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes	29c	200$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.4	76	38.2%29 W · 47 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	18c	200$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.8	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	14c	194.08$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.58	169	45%76 W · 93 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3f5…9c45backed No	79c	186.94$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.35	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.19per pick	47cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bb8…dafdbacked Yes	17c	182.79$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.88	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.16per pick	14cpaid	+70.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d47…2aa9backed No	67c	180$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.21	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c3f…ff4bbacked Yes	10c	179.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8bce…c476backed Yes	29c	171.53$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.79	78	23.1%18 W · 60 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d69…34d7backed Yes	28c	152.13$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.37	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x890d…782cbacked Yes	27c	150.07$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	60	21.7%13 W · 47 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No	77c	148.5$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.16	21	85.7%18 W · 3 L	+4.0wins	+0.19per pick	67cpaid	+42.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb5fa…fe6ebacked Yes	22c	137.34$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	18c	135.93$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	281	11%31 W · 250 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes	12c	125.96$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	12c	125$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	13c	124.72$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.93	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5e1…db83backed Yes	23c	123.65$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.26	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x675c…9678backed Yes	16c	123.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.7wins	+0.12per pick	16cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfc6…aef0backed Yes	13c	115$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.95	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event