Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6989b8e46e91d1e235b57982c81fed0f1521540b41b2ec1b737476995c8d2c20

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 5, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $124,170
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $40,585

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,170 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	51,722$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.82	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	4c	4,200$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.17	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,561$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.94	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	2c	3,368$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.65	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	2,663$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.41	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes	2c	2,604$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.72	84	13.1%11 W · 73 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	2c	1,666$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.11	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	8c	1,635$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.05	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	1,550$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf414…917fbacked Yes	7c	1,272$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-69.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff70…2475backed Yes	4c	1,224$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	3c	1,029$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.99	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	1c	1,022$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	2c	1,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.98	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	4c	940.88$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.17	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	867.34$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.42	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	10c	799.99$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.31	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	7c	799.94$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.53	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x899d…4adcbacked Yes	2c	799.14$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.64	44	11.4%5 W · 39 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+42.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	5c	760.56$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.81	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	734.49$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.57	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed4a…2dc9backed Yes	3c	733.13$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	17c	513$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.96	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xede0…9117backed Yes	4c	509.03$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes	6c	436.34$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.78	230	19.1%44 W · 186 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b09…d908backed Yes	5c	434.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	4c	400.79$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.37	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	4c	395.39$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.47	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	4c	272.95$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd2…943bbacked Yes	6c	216.83$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	+2.0wins	+0.10per pick	14cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	16c	186$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.9	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb99…6844backed Yes	13c	135.91$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.67	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	17c	110$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event