Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x306f0e6a07925d97b3197a17cd4d0dfb27a0c828d31106079cb96ec81fe5d6cd

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 5, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $142,681
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $74,389

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,681 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	54,555$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$472.74	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	5,119$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.03	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbcb4…b811backed Yes	11c	3,624$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	2,972$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.53	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	16c	2,934$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$469.66	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e59…a17cbacked Yes	15c	2,760$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.95	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	1c	2,652$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.91	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	13c	2,399$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.5	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x172b…e2cdbacked Yes	24c	2,042$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.74	82	36.6%30 W · 52 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	14c	1,777$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.78	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	4c	1,500$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	17c	1,289$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	6c	1,216$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.72	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	10c	1,177$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.33	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	3c	1,003$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.68	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5632…748dbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5822…0d28backed Yes	13c	1,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No	75c	998.99$749 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.75	68	19.1%13 W · 55 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed4a…2dc9backed Yes	21c	971.77$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	9c	809.53$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.69	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	15c	800$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.68	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9100…1bfbbacked Yes	20c	611.97$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.43	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	2c	600$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	8c	555.22$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x304d…07f1backed No	80c	530.84$423 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.23	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	3c	499.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	11c	483.87$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.65	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xff70…2475backed Yes	10c	479$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…5490backed Yes	18c	453.72$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x602f…20e1backed Yes	12c	435.25$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.23	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	16c	424.59$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.66	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	5c	423.31$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0151…3691backed Yes	14c	339.58$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.92	113	28.3%32 W · 81 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	13c	327.09$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.65	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	17c	300$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	10c	240.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.76	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes	24c	200$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.38	230	19.1%44 W · 186 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb99…6844backed Yes	17c	143$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.31	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d7…bd8ebacked Yes	7c	139.1$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45a1…d54abacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5a…4407backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event