Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb71ee44874e6128bf90be5d2f1c07a58bbebdf2518535143069992ac22e277d1

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 5, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $41,401
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $12,105

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,401 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf414…917fbacked Yes	1c	3,156$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-69.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.22	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	1,750$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,520$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.64	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	1c	1,423$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.79	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	17c	1,086$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	13c	856.16$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.25	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	294$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.73	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x754f…4e38backed Yes	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	17c	130.93$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.87	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4617…654bbacked Yes	16c	128.94$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef72…118dbacked Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	14c	110$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee2…c260backed Yes	16c	110$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	125	23.2%29 W · 96 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	14c	85.7$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	15c	80$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0151…3691backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	113	28.3%32 W · 81 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event