Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc8750fcdde12dfb3ff5ad85df380d5aca1effe7699caffcf05f850a6ee81496

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 6, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $188,236
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $110,826

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,236 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	2c	44,087$993 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$992.86	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd3b…1168backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	10c	7,338$747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$746.66	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	5c	7,052$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.17	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	5,154$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.71	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	15c	4,429$662 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$661.67	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	7c	3,733$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.23	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	15c	3,644$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$537.74	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	3c	3,524$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.37	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	3,249$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.25	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	7c	2,583$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.14	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	2,483$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.47	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e59…a17cbacked Yes	22c	2,379$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.96	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	11c	2,132$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.89	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2255…b765backed Yes	6c	1,665$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	17c	1,500$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.74	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	17c	1,487$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.32	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes	2c	1,443$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.7	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+61%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb4…b811backed Yes	21c	1,415$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.15	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes	6c	1,368$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	3c	1,281$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.33	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	3c	1,223$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.77	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	25c	1,216$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.27	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes	25c	1,026$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8498…d219backed Yes	10c	963.63$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.7	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	16c	919.87$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	3c	788.93$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.39	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	19c	769.46$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.02	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	9c	745.44$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.7	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	18c	642.43$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.03	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	5c	599.62$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.75	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdee5…6e85backed Yes	3c	596.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	20c	566.92$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.38	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	4c	542.61$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.6	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	76c	534.8$407 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.05	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	19c	503$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.86	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	24c	490.59$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.18	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb409…d114backed No	77c	435.43$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.62	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98ec…8fd6backed Yes	24c	419.85$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c22…9717backed Yes	3c	417.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	412.75$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.19	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes	4c	411.13$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	84	13.1%11 W · 73 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	20c	400.19$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.37	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	79c	393.98$310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.08	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfed7…5490backed Yes	20c	393.52$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Yes	4c	386.19$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	9c	382.39$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.24	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64c3…cd76backed Yes	4c	377.56$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-69.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	4c	372.29$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.58	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9861…2d03backed Yes	21c	321.09$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	14c	319.99$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.05	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	23c	299.98$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.5	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5e1…db83backed Yes	7c	297.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dea…9e90backed Yes	7c	255$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.75	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	7c	222.09$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.63	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	17c	219.88$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.14	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes	7c	200.15$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.71	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9871…4a6cbacked Yes	25c	198.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88e2…8b9cbacked Yes	10c	193.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	78c	187$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.61	315	65.1%205 W · 110 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7076…19d0backed Yes	25c	153.34$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.03	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+65.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes	8c	150$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9afb…7f99backed Yes	20c	143.83$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.45	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.15per pick	17cpaid	+217.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x43c2…4beabacked Yes	11c	136.65$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddca…239abacked Yes	23c	100.52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	44	15.9%7 W · 37 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5638…5e50backed Yes	24c	100.08$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes	22c	100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.55	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b5a…4407backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	77c	98.61$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.03	518	45.9%238 W · 280 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7710…bf96backed Yes	21c	95.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0850…74c5backed Yes	24c	83.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc88…731ebacked Yes	24c	82.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x460c…ffd6backed Yes	24c	80.21$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.09	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d69…34d7backed Yes	25c	79.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes	19c	78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.62	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b4b…8790backed Yes	21c	72.12$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.14per pick	31cpaid	-69.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	24c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.34	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf89…700dbacked No	78c	52.69$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.59	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No	77c	50.1$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.57	271	5.2%14 W · 257 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c4…c28dbacked No	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	36cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2aab…3b61backed Yes	23c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ed0…25a8backed Yes	21c	49.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30b0…6725backed No	78c	40.56$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.06	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3839…5f3ebacked No	79c	35.3$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.41	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e74…c5c1backed No	79c	25.8$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.29	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93d0…90cbbacked No	79c	23.29$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.98	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked No	74c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.3	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7740…cbcdbacked No	77c	16$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.68	40	55%22 W · 18 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event