Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x614ba0ec9e84d9314092a099f0da0d2343285c9b7e478472208efc4082cab6d3

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 7, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $188,137
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $79,545

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,137 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	70,456$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370.52	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	15,815$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.07	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	5,332$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.95	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	1c	5,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.72	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	5,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	2c	4,658$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.19	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,284$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.18	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	2c	3,069$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.71	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	0c	2,690$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.96	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,399$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.21	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	2,141$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	1c	2,095$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5632…748dbacked Yes	1c	1,999$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	6c	1,685$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf414…917fbacked Yes	1c	1,553$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-69.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	1,548$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.52	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	1c	1,539$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes	3c	1,495$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.21	84	13.1%11 W · 73 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8498…d219backed Yes	2c	1,448$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	3c	1,306$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.31	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	3c	1,159$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.82	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	3c	1,063$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.58	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	859.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.78	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d69…34d7backed Yes	6c	773.7$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.47	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbed…c997backed Yes	1c	749.97$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+3.3wins	+0.10per pick	11cpaid	+78.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	2c	722.19$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.83	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	711.72$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5822…0d28backed Yes	3c	625.45$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.19	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	2c	513.77$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.81	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c22…9717backed Yes	4c	421.31$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe9…78cabacked Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	3c	299.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddaf…1d28backed Yes	5c	220$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event