Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdf45224875e9c33dc7f0ac2e2f7982c08ad65b7f77fe81972bb94478ea09eab

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 3, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $34,501
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,594

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,501 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	2c	8,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15a9…6b43backed Yes	2c	1,850$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes	15c	677.81$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	587$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.86	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0976…704cbacked Yes	10c	499.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Yes	13c	384.62$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	324.24$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.7	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	18c	222.22$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x754f…4e38backed Yes	18c	200$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	11c	182.39$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.57	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x752a…282fbacked Yes	13c	169.05$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.49	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	12cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes	18c	156.35$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.14	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.11per pick	20cpaid	-78.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa52a…5b16backed Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf469…7aa9backed Yes	13c	153.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-52%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	13c	128$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.64	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes	16c	124.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5bc8…734dbacked Yes	22c	113.64$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf67c…c5b2backed Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee2…c260backed Yes	10c	110$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	125	23.2%29 W · 96 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe197…5667backed Yes	11c	100.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	67	20.9%14 W · 53 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked No	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8de9…3171backed Yes	22c	100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.36	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	14c	80$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event