Movies · resolved market
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $135-145m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1debf0ac763b61259402b419a59a791a02b29081a1e6287af966752a3e911ac4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $394,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $239,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $394,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 0c | 44,444$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 0c | 41,674$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4966…c504backed Yes | 0c | 30,266$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 23,804$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.06 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 1c | 15,258$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 0c | 13,299$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d33…5a2ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,078$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30a…7621backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 9,822$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.45 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 15c | 9,776$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.27 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03c3…f47abacked Yes | 2c | 9,058$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.86 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 18c | 8,526$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.94 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 4c | 7,475$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.6 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Yes | 1c | 7,208$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 5c | 5,785$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.71 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes | 6c | 5,500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.4 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 5,218$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.22 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 4,212$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 1c | 3,563$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 8c | 3,518$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.91 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e5…c4adbacked Yes | 8c | 3,234$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…3d48backed Yes | 35c | 2,850$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,789$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 3c | 2,446$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…2eabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,214$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,184$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.73 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…1a61backed Yes | 1c | 2,120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e9…bf4fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,007$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78f…8917backed Yes | 22c | 1,790$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.14 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d1…a5abbacked Yes | 1c | 1,629$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 14c | 1,504$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.66 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Yes | 2c | 1,461$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 15c | 1,383$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.87 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 5c | 1,291$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 36c | 1,087$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.4 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 1,045$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.77 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bd…7469backed Yes | 30c | 1,010$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 32c | 999.99$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 6c | 937.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54d…8ac6backed Yes | 34c | 877$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc8…a1b2backed Yes | 4c | 798.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 64c | 715$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.95 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 652$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.27 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 66c | 646$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.78 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee90…d959backed Yes | 3c | 638.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…ba50backed Yes | 5c | 631.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 7c | 610.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 36c | 586.91$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.3 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Yes | 5c | 584$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…ed39backed Yes | 4c | 555.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…7f5cbacked Yes | 6c | 536$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…f1ffbacked Yes | 37c | 531$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.89 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 7c | 525$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 41c | 518.87$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.14 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 8c | 465$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 407.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 1,415 | 8%113 W · 1,302 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 67c | 404.67$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748f…f6e5backed No | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 382.4$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.64 | 368 | 38.3%141 W · 227 L | -19.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 41c | 327.69$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.1 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c98…d38fbacked Yes | 5c | 312.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 66c | 299.21$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…6fbabacked Yes | 7c | 298.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…6b0bbacked Yes | 13c | 279.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 6c | 277.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa677…7d76backed Yes | 33c | 277.63$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…63a9backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…2ff6backed Yes | 55c | 250$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90d2…a6b3backed Yes | 39c | 244.43$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 12c | 236.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ec…98c2backed Yes | 7c | 236.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 6c | 198.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…5be1backed Yes | 16c | 190.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…712bbacked Yes | 43c | 186.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 176.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 509 | 33.2%169 W · 340 L | -31.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…6eddbacked Yes | 41c | 169.39$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…5c3abacked Yes | 7c | 163.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd268…105dbacked Yes | 38c | 148.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 34c | 146.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…ab20backed No | 61c | 138.21$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked Yes | 31c | 129.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 61c | 128.93$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 106.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 885 | 33.6%297 W · 588 L | -76.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe484…4e11backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…cbcdbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…19d1backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes | 39c | 99.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Yes | 30c | 99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…67fdbacked Yes | 40c | 88.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 66c | 76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dac…2985backed Yes | 40c | 49.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 42c | 45.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $135-145m?this page
- Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $115-125m?Yes won
- Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $125-135m?No won
- Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $115m?No won
- Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $145m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.