TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $145m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$479,946
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$411,160

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $479,946 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03c3…f47abacked Yes0c107,337$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.06812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick5cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes0c44,444$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.441428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-61.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes9c35,213$3,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,089.561711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-58.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes0c27,250$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9332814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4966…c504backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Yes1c13,814$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7590%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes17c10,517$1,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,761.53716.2%6 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c10,455$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5814212%17 W · 125 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-75.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f30…acaebacked Yes9c7,638$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes19c7,556$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.0912923.3%30 W · 99 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d33…5a2ebacked Yes0c6,028$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.31837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes1c5,173$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.457121.1%15 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa665…2c25backed Yes0c5,037$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e9…bf4fbacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93d1…a5abbacked Yes0c4,667$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8bc…2eabbacked Yes0c4,627$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2130%0 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe78f…8917backed Yes17c3,052$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.091421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid-47.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No71c3,041$2,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.924134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.8wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe1e5…c4adbacked Yes2c3,001$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes3c2,887$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.95714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-63.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa55c…cae9backed Yes1c2,658$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.26156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-74.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed Yes19c2,500$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Yes23c2,438$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.22321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-58%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d7…7f5cbacked Yes1c2,240$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.371915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x140b…2ec0backed Yes1c1,983$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes20c1,593$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.313231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96a7…ef04backed Yes1c1,524$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa23d…5be1backed Yes2c1,511$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,299$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.381,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a3f…e333backed Yes3c1,276$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.22424.8%2 W · 40 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick15cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf354…5c13backed Yes1c1,263$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No77c1,240$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.31947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c1,006$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.4436538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes12c1,000$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+44.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes13c971.05$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.993417.6%6 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae2…6789backed Yes7c945$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.48520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdf0…712bbacked Yes35c927.01$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c820.16$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.148414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x36bd…7469backed Yes17c749.88$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-75.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba0b…5c3abacked Yes1c735.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102512%3 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…67fdbacked No68c733.33$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.33757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes16c700.33$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9160%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes32c588.35$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.3510537.1%39 W · 66 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes8c579.39$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89d7…3fabbacked No67c557.38$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.141464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48ec…09afbacked Yes10c550$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+50.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee01…f1ffbacked No61c531$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.41546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes25c530$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.346426.6%17 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Yes39c512.25$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-62.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa677…7d76backed Yes29c456.02$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-75.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No75c329.85$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.549442.6%40 W · 54 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No65c303.51$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.47252.8%38 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed No65c300$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-64.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ef…039bbacked Yes17c298.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No74c285.83$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.244131.7%13 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked No73c284.93$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.632941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa50f…84cdbacked Yes9c262$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes16c254.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408930.3%27 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9212…2ff6backed Yes18c250$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4560%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x825e…904fbacked No72c246.2$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.14966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked No73c231.86$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.069851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f72…9a74backed No67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.51457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c98…d38fbacked Yes24c199.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.381020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+77.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd268…105dbacked Yes25c199.82$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.51136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes19c184$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.843713.5%5 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-64.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes29c183.94$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49ac…84f3backed Yes11c180$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.250%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x506f…e8bbbacked No80c160$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.18580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69a1…85f0backed Yes32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes32c150$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486732.8%22 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes25c149.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa11…ecafbacked Yes14c146.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes28c141.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405839.7%23 W · 35 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No67c126$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.971656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x053e…6422backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x873b…0610backed Yes19c124.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-38.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96e0…b648backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-72%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc4ba…68fabacked No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5060…cbcdbacked Yes25c99.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-61.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes36c79.95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8867232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes29c73.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34e6…cd63backed No76c70$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe608…0c2cbacked Yes22c63.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x940b…8d3dbacked Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53cf…7d67backed No79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbea…484cbacked No72c54.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137431.1%23 W · 51 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-30.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b6a…f057backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.53116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac2e…95e6backed Yes35c40.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.081711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x241f…ef50backed Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143821.1%8 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x917d…601abacked No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145729.8%17 W · 40 L+0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fbc…4f9dbacked No65c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.31118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-69.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x978d…5eddbacked Yes31c33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.233426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-48.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf735…6157backed No75c30.48$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.62825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d30…cd30backed No60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6210…7806backed Yes42c28.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e16…981ebacked No64c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.12147.6%10 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick30cpaid+43.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.