Movies · resolved market
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $145m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f1e57ec69c4d7eba7c215a9d70dc58bc48047c222b805fc268a4cac251a5657
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $479,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $411,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $479,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03c3…f47abacked Yes | 0c | 107,337$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.06 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 0c | 44,444$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 9c | 35,213$3,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,089.56 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 27,250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4966…c504backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Yes | 1c | 13,814$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes | 17c | 10,517$1,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,761.5 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 10,455$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f30…acaebacked Yes | 9c | 7,638$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 19c | 7,556$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,429.09 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d33…5a2ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,028$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 5,173$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa665…2c25backed Yes | 0c | 5,037$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e9…bf4fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d1…a5abbacked Yes | 0c | 4,667$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…2eabbacked Yes | 0c | 4,627$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78f…8917backed Yes | 17c | 3,052$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.09 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 71c | 3,041$2,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.92 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e5…c4adbacked Yes | 2c | 3,001$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,887$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…cae9backed Yes | 1c | 2,658$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 19c | 2,500$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Yes | 23c | 2,438$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.2 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…7f5cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,240$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x140b…2ec0backed Yes | 1c | 1,983$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 20c | 1,593$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.31 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a7…ef04backed Yes | 1c | 1,524$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…5be1backed Yes | 2c | 1,511$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,299$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 3c | 1,276$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf354…5c13backed Yes | 1c | 1,263$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 77c | 1,240$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.3 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 1,006$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.44 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 13c | 971.05$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.99 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae2…6789backed Yes | 7c | 945$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…712bbacked Yes | 35c | 927.01$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 820.16$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.1 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36bd…7469backed Yes | 17c | 749.88$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…5c3abacked Yes | 1c | 735.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…67fdbacked No | 68c | 733.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 16c | 700.33$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.91 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 32c | 588.35$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.35 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 8c | 579.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d7…3fabbacked No | 67c | 557.38$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…09afbacked Yes | 10c | 550$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…f1ffbacked No | 61c | 531$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 25c | 530$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.34 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 39c | 512.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa677…7d76backed Yes | 29c | 456.02$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 75c | 329.85$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.54 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 65c | 303.51$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ef…039bbacked Yes | 17c | 298.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 74c | 285.83$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 73c | 284.93$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…84cdbacked Yes | 9c | 262$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 16c | 254.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…2ff6backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 72c | 246.2$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 73c | 231.86$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c98…d38fbacked Yes | 24c | 199.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd268…105dbacked Yes | 25c | 199.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 19c | 184$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 29c | 183.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…84f3backed Yes | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a1…85f0backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 25c | 149.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa11…ecafbacked Yes | 14c | 146.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 28c | 141.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 67c | 126$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x053e…6422backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873b…0610backed Yes | 19c | 124.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -72%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…cbcdbacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 79.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 29c | 73.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…cd63backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…0c2cbacked Yes | 22c | 63.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x940b…8d3dbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…484cbacked No | 72c | 54.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6a…f057backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac2e…95e6backed Yes | 35c | 40.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…5eddbacked Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf735…6157backed No | 75c | 30.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d30…cd30backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…7806backed Yes | 42c | 28.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…981ebacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $145m?this page
- Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $115-125m?Yes won
- Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $125-135m?No won
- Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $135-145m?No won
- Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $115m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.